'Respectable' hiring pace to continue in 4th quarter

Construction, transportation, public utilities to see biggest gains: Survey
|hrreporter.com|Last Updated: 09/14/2012

Canadian employers expect the hiring climate to remain respectable for the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

With seasonal variations removed from the data, a net employment outlook of 10 per cent is a slight decrease when compared to the outlook reported in the previous quarter. This is also a three percentage point drop from the outlook reported during the same time last year.

However, results for the fourth quarter represent one of the more modest employer forecasts in more than two years, said Manpower.

Sixteen per cent of the nearly 1,900 Canadian employers surveyed plan to increase their payrolls in the fourth quarter of 2012, while seven per cent anticipate cutbacks. Three-quarters expect to maintain their current staffing levels while two per cent are unsure of their hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter.

"Jobseekers in all regions are likely to benefit from a positive hiring climate from October through December, with employers in Western Canada reporting the most upbeat outlook," said Byrne Luft, vice-president of operations, staffing services at Manpower Canada. "Although regional outlooks have experienced moderate decreases compared to the previous quarter, jobseekers should maintain confidence in the labour market as employers throughout Canada anticipate the hiring pace will remain steady through the autumn.”

Most of the new jobs created in Canada this year have been full-time, high-paying positions, he said. Many of the job reductions have come from part-time employment.

“This movement from part-time to full-time employment is an encouraging sign."

Regional Hiring Intentions Generally Upbeat

Regionally, employers in Western Canada anticipate the strongest hiring climate for the upcoming quarter," said Luft.

"Employers expect a favourable environment for jobseekers, reporting a net employment outlook of 18 per cent. The outlook for this region is due in part to the healthy hiring forecast reported by employers in the construction and mining sectors.”

In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, employers anticipate an upbeat hiring climate for the upcoming quarter, reporting net employment outlooks of 13 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, employers in Ontario project a modest fourth quarter with a forecast of eight per cent.

“Some new manufacturing and national resources projects are likely to add substantially to employment in Ontario,” said Luft. “These prospective gains are offset by large-scale workforce reductions expected elsewhere within the province. In part because of these conflicting movements, employers anticipate an outlook of conservative growth in the region this quarter."

Sectors: Net employment outlook

Fourth quarter 2012

Third quarter 2012

Mining

18%

23%

Transportation, public utilities

15%

18%

Finance, insurance, real estate

9%

14%

Manufacturing – durables

12%

12%

Services:

12%

12%

Construction

14%

9%

Public administration

8%

8%

Manufacturing – non-durables

5%

4%

Education

6%

1%

Mining: Employers in the mining sector anticipate an upbeat fourth quarter in 2012, reporting a net employment outlook of 18 per cent. This is a five percentage point reduction from the previous quarter.

Transportation and public utilities: Employers forecast a favourable hiring climate, reporting a net employment outlook of 15 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2012. This is a three percentage point decrease from the forecast for the previous quarter and a five percentage point decrease from the same time last year.

Finance, insurance and real estate: Employers report a net employment outlook of nine per cent for the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating a cautiously optimistic hiring climate. This is a moderate decrease from the forecast of 14 per cent for the previous quarter and is a decrease of three percentage points from the same time last year.

Wholesale and retail trade: Employers anticipate a hopeful hiring climate, reporting a net employment outlook of 12 per cent. This is unchanged from both the previous quarter's forecast and the the same time last year.

Manufacturing – durables: With a net employment outlook of 12 per cent, employers anticipate a favourable hiring climate for jobseekers. This remains unchanged compared to the prior quarter's forecast but it is a five percentage point decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

Services: Employers anticipate a steady hiring climate for the fourth quarter of 2012, reporting a net employment outlook of 12 per cent. This is on par with the forecast from the previous quarter and the same time last year.

Construction: Reporting a net employment outlook of 14 per cent, employers in the construction sector anticipate an upbeat hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. This is a moderate increase compared to the nine per cent reported during the previous quarter and a slight increase over the 11 per cent reported during the same time last year.

Public administration: Employers anticipate a fair hiring environment for the fourth quarter of 2012, reporting a net employment outlook of eight per cent. This is unchanged compared to the previous quarter when employers reported a seasonally adjusted outlook of eight per cent. However, it is a six percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year.

Manufacturing – non-durables: Employers report a net employment outlook of five per cent indicating a mild hiring climate for the fourth quarter of 2012. Hiring intentions are relatively stable compared to the previous quarter of four per cent and are an eight percentage point drop from the same time last year.

Education, public and private: Employers report a net employment outlook of six per cent, indicating a modest hiring climate for the upcoming three-month period. This is a moderate increase from the previous quarter forecast of one per cent, and a one percentage point decrease from the same time last year.

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