Trump's immigration aims undermine economic goals

It’s hard to see how the president’s proposal, which may slash annual legal immigration by almost half, squares with his aim of lifting economic growth to three per cent or higher

Trump's immigration aims undermine economic goals

By Christopher Beddor

WASHINGTON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump’s immigration aims could undermine his economic goals. Court rulings are preventing the deportation of people who entered the United States illegally as minors, even as their protections were due to expire on Monday. Yet many remain in limbo, and the White House wants to reduce new arrivals.

Last year the Trump administration set a March 5 deadline to start phasing out the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which shields about 700,000 individuals from deportation. The president said he hoped the move would spur Congress to find a solution. Earlier this year, however, judges in San Francisco and New York issued rulings ordering the government to continue renewing DACA documentation, effectively rendering the date irrelevant.

The result provides a breather for politicians in Washington, where DACA has morphed into one part of a broader immigration debate. The administration proposes a path to citizenship for some 1.8 million illegal immigrants in exchange for tougher border security and curbs to legal migration.

But Congress is deeply divided: Four immigration-reform bills failed in the Republican-controlled Senate on Feb. 15, and the House may prove an even tougher hurdle. The next battle may come with a spending bill due to be voted on later this month.

In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of immigrants, including DACA recipients, face an uncertain future. This legal limbo carries a cost. Economists Elira Kuka, Na’ama Shenhav and Kevin Shih estimated in a recent paper that DACA protections significantly increased both work and school attendance, and even led to a near-halving in the teen birth rate.

More broadly, it’s hard to see how the president’s proposal, which may slash annual legal immigration by almost half, squares with his aim of lifting economic growth to three per cent or higher. The American working-age population is set to grow only modestly in coming years as baby boomers retire and fertility rates hover at record lows. The Pew Research Center reckons that without new arrivals, that cohort will shrink to 166 million by 2035 from 173 million in 2015.

That would act as a drag on the economy’s growth rate and could exacerbate all sorts of other issues, not least financing the country’s daunting entitlement obligations. It’s a prospect that should give all but the most ardent immigration opponent pause for thought.

 

CONTEXT NEWS

- The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, an initiative of former President Barack Obama that shielded from deportation hundreds of thousands of individuals who entered the country illegally as minors, was scheduled to expire on March 5. The administration of President Donald Trump announced the deadline in September, saying it would give Congress six months to find a permanent solution.

- Subsequent court rulings have required the government to continue processing renewals for existing DACA recipients. The administration appealed and attempted to take its case directly to the Supreme Court. That body rejected its bid on Feb. 26, meaning the case will now be handled by a lower appellate court.

 

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