Even as Monday.com posts stronger-than-expected quarterly results, markets are punishing HR and work management platforms
Monday.com, a popular work‑management and project software provider, reported adjusted earnings of US$1.04 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, ahead of analyst expectations.
Revenue also beat forecasts, reaching about US$333.9 million for the quarter, up from roughly US$268 million a year earlier.
However, despite four straight quarters of topping earnings and revenue estimates, the company’s shares have fallen about 33.6 per cent since the beginning of the year, suggesting that markets are reassessing the long‑term value of many software‑as‑a‑service (SaaS) players tied to AI‑powered productivity, even if underlying business is growing.
Workday layoffs deepen unease around HR tech
Marketwatch reported Monday that Monday.com "investors are spooked" by the company's disclosure of a challenging sales scenario.
In an earnings call Monday, co-CEO Roy Mann said “No-touch channels continue to operate in a choppy demand environment, particularly among the smaller customers, which we expect to persist in 2026.”
“What this means, in practical terms," he added, "is that the costs to acquire and expand self-serve customers have increased over the past year, and the returns on those investments have been below historical levels."
The market chill is not limited to Monday.com.
Workday, a major provider of payroll, talent management and expense software widely used by Canadian employers, has announced layoffs affecting about two per cent of its workforce, and its share price has fallen about 34 per cent over the past year.
The company is also facing a class‑action lawsuit alleging that it uses AI to discriminate against candidates based on race, age and disability – allegations the company strongly denies.
When AI bubble meets HR reality
The turbulence around Monday.com and Workday is unfolding against a broader debate about whether we are in an “AI bubble” – and what happens if it bursts.
In an earlier Canadian HR Reporter piece, Randy Goebel, professor of computing science at the University of Alberta, draws a direct comparison to the dot‑com era.
“There is the perception of a whole lot more money being invested than in the dot‑com bubble,” he says. He notes that today’s investment is far more concentrated in a handful of U.S. technology giants: “What's different is that the huge volume of interests and company valuations are much more highly focused on … the technology oligarchs, especially Google and Microsoft and Open AI
Goebel also warns about the behavioural side of the bubble. “There is an enthusiasm that's artificial in both investors and promoters,” he says. “And that artificial enthusiasm creates this notion of a bubble. Whether it pops or deflates, is a different question.”
On that same earnings call reported by Marketwatch, Monday.com's other co-CEO Eran Zinman pointed out the platform's success at "evolving into an AI-powered work execution platform, built around three distinct layers of AI value” to executives on the call.
What this means for Canadian HR and employers
For Canadian organizations, the risk is less about a sudden collapse of AI itself and more about over‑committing to specific platforms in an overheated market, Goebel commented.
Employers that have hired aggressively into internal “AI teams” or locked themselves into multi‑year, single‑vendor HR tech stacks without a clear business case may be especially vulnerable if valuations fall and vendors pivot or retrench.
By contrast, Goebel has observed organizations that are “much more aware of the potential value and are much more cautious about how they adopt current AI technologies to be able to extrude value from them.”
Those employers are less likely to lurch into unsustainable hiring or vendor commitments – as he puts it, “So they haven't jumped off the deep end saying, ‘Oh, we have to hire 10 AI experts. We don't know what one is, but if somebody says they are one then we better hire them.”
