But prospect of trade war may hinder jobseekers' plans: report
Looking at the total job postings data, it seems US President Donald Trump’s tariffs threat against Canada did not hinder employers’ desire to look for more talent.
As of Jan. 31, Canadian job postings were up 5% from late November 2024, holding steady through the start of 2025 amid rising potential for a Canada-US trade war, reports Indeed.
Postings at the end of January were down 5% year-over-year driven by declines through the first three-quarters of 2024 and a partial rebound in Q4, according to the report.
Job postings posted within the last seven days have also remained firm since November,
This indicates that “the recent stability in total postings reflects recent employer activity, rather than job ads posted earlier,” says Brendon Bernard, senior economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
“Employers’ lack of reaction to tariff talk has extended to occupational sectors likely most exposed to the potential shock. While still below their pre-pandemic level, postings for jobs in production and manufacturing have evolved similarly to the rest of the economy in recent weeks, and were 6% higher at the end of January than they were in late November. Other job categories potentially at risk, including installation & maintenance and mechanical engineering, have also fared relatively well over this period.”
Many businesses globally are looking to significantly increase their workforce numbers as they anticipate a lot of positive ahead for the global economy, according to a previous PwC report.
How do tariffs affect demand from job seekers?
While the tariffs threat did not affect employers’ desire to hire more, it may have raised fears among job seekers, according to Indeed.
Since late November, the average number of clicks received by manufacturing job postings has slipped relative to postings elsewhere. At the start of the tariff discussion in late November, manufacturing postings received 7% fewer clicks than the average job ad on Indeed.
By late January, the gap had widened to 10% fewer clicks, according to the report.
“The prospect of a trade war is a dark cloud over the Canadian economy, though the ultimate policy direction is highly uncertain,” says Bernard. “Payrolls in trade-exposed sectors have been quite flat in recent years, but ratcheting up tariffs for any extended period could cause a serious hit. Employer recruiting activity held steady amid the initial uncertainty, but things could change if the situation persists.”
Previously, the Toronto Star reported that Canadian small business job growth has been “lagging” since last summer, particularly within manufacturing and professional services.
And Canadian small businesses have lost more than 84,000 jobs since July, despite adding a cumulative 126,600 jobs between October 2023 and October 2024, according to the report citing data from Intuit QuickBooks.
Should the tariffs be imposed and last for a considerable amount of time, at least a million Canadians could lose employment, according to one expert.
However, over eight in 10 (81 per cent) employers are willing to endure the short-term pain of retaliatory tariffs if Canada can negotiate a fair deal that protects the country’s trade-based economy, independence and sovereignty, according to the KPMG report.
