Says many physicians, nurses, teachers, professors and skilled trades workers would leave Alberta before it became independent
The Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) is warning that Alberta separation would create severe economic and logistical challenges for workers and the province’s economy.
Alberta separatists are collecting signatures until May 2, 2026, to pressure the United Conservative Party provincial government into calling a referendum on separation from Canada.
If the UCP proceeds, a referendum could occur between fall 2026 and May 2027, according to
But an independent Alberta would become a “landlocked country” dependent on Canada or the United States for access to international export markets for oil, natural gas, agricultural products, and machinery, says the AFL.
“Alberta would lose out on the many federal programs and fund-sharing agreements,” the brief states. In 2025-26, major federal transfers to Alberta included a $6.6-billion Canada Health Transfer and a $2.1-billion Canada Social Transfer.
The labour organization highlights that Alberta would need to replace costly federal infrastructure, including taxation systems, policing, border services, post-secondary education funding, health care, and pension programs. The existing Canada-Alberta Labour Market Development Agreement, which covers Employment Insurance (EI) and interprovincial labour mobility, would also be eliminated.
Discussion about Alberta separating should be carefully handled in the workplace, according to one expert.
Challenges for Alberta workers
Workers face particular risks, according to the AFL. Labour mobility restrictions could limit Canadian workers’ access to Alberta job sites, such as oil sands facilities, while Alberta workers might lose the ability to travel to other provinces for employment on construction projects.
“Many workers and companies would leave Alberta before it became an independent country,” the brief warns. Essential workers, including physicians, nurses, teachers, professors, and skilled trades workers, would likely depart before official independence.
The AFL claims some big financial challenges that an independent Alberta will face include:
- Many workers and companies would leave Alberta before it became an independent country.
- Alberta’s universities and colleges would need to train more workers in many occupations and sectors that are critical for Alberta’s economic success (e.g., construction and health care).
- Many physicians, nurses, teachers, professors, and skilled trades workers will leave Alberta before it becomes officially independent.
- Alberta would need to develop many standards and regulations to replace the Canadian ones. Standards, regulations, and legal and economic stability affect a country’s ability to attract foreign direct investment and immigrants with skills and money to contribute to the economy.
An independent Alberta would need to assume between $75 billion and $100 billion of federal debt, develop a national currency, and negotiate international trade deals from a weakened position, says the union. The province would lose the influence of being part of a Group of Seven nation.
Independence would go ‘terribly badly’
The AFL cites recent economist analyses supporting its position. On Jan. 9, 2026, economist Moshe Lander told Alberta Primetime that Alberta independence would go “terribly badly.” In November 2025, Lennie Kaplan estimated that Alberta separation could cost $130 billion over the next decade.
Consumer prices for groceries and other goods imported from Canada and the US could increase substantially, creating additional hardship for workers already struggling with housing and food costs.
The organization warns that reduced government revenue, a smaller tax base, higher debt levels, and increased interest rates from a worse credit rating would mean significantly less funding for public services at a time when Alberta would need to deliver more services independently.
Recent polling suggests that Albertans are divided on the idea of separation. A Leger survey conducted in May 2025 found that 26% of Canadians overall supported Alberta becoming an independent country, while 47% of Alberta respondents expressed support for separation. Conservative supporters were more favourable toward the idea than other parties, with 43% supporting separation compared to only 12% of Liberal supporters.
