FIFA event is good for Canada, says economist, 'but, at the same time, I'd be cautious of overstating the benefit'
World Cup economics: Ottawa touts billions in benefits but experts urge reality check
As Canada opens its doors to FIFA 2026, government officials and independent economists are telling very different stories about what hosting will actually deliver
Canada's Secretary of State for Sport is pushing back against skepticism over the country's $1-billion investment in co-hosting the FIFA World Cup, arguing the tournament represents a long-term bet on the country's future rather than a simple line item on a balance sheet.
"I'd like to insist that these are finances invested in the future of our country," said Adam van Koeverden, according to CTV News. "Investment is extremely prudent."
Van Koeverden rejected the notion that spending on security and temporary infrastructure — including modifications to BMO Field that will eventually be removed — should be viewed as pure costs, saying upgrades such as additional accessibility elevators and expanded viewing suites at venues will deliver value long after the final whistle.
$1-billion investment in FIFA
The $1 billion figure, as outlined by the Parliamentary Budget Officer, breaks down into roughly $958 million for city operations in Toronto and Vancouver, $224 million for safety and security, and $126 million in stadium upgrades.
FIFA projects the tournament could generate as much as $3.8 billion in total economic output for Canada, contribute about $2 billion to GDP, and create or sustain around 24,100 jobs, according to CTV News.
But independent economists are considerably more cautious.
"FIFA-related job growth, regardless of size, will likely be temporary and part-time," RBC economist Claire Fan told the Toronto Star, adding the positions could disappear as early as July or August.
BMO senior economist Shelly Kaushik also said that any employment gains would be concentrated in tourism and hospitality in Toronto and Vancouver — and that once hosting costs are factored in, Canada's GDP is likely to grow by just 0.1 percentage points, split across two quarters.
"That's very, very small," she told the Toronto Star.
Kaushik stopped short of dismissing the tournament's value entirely.
"The World Cup is benefiting Canada, and yes, I think we need it," she told the Star. "It's a good time to get any sort of support. But at the same time, I'd be cautious of overstating the benefit."
One HR consulting firm estimates the tournament could drive at least US $17 billion in lost productivity across eight countries — with $11.7 billion of that in the United States alone.
B.C. optimistic about FIFA impact
The B.C. government has projected that Vancouver's seven World Cup matches will generate one million additional out-of-province visitors, $1 billion in additional provincial GDP, and more than $200 million in tax revenues between 2026 and 2031.
Labour income is expected to increase by around $900 million.
Those figures were produced by B.C. Stats using visitor spending data, business activity, capital investment, and government spending as inputs.
But Moshe Lander, a sports economist and senior lecturer at Concordia University, told CBC News the academic consensus points firmly in the other direction.
"It's kind of a closed case in academia. Like, there's no one really arguing that these benefits are there," he said.
One key flaw in government modelling is the failure to account for displacement — the ordinary tourists who would have visited Vancouver in a typical summer but are now staying away precisely because the city is hosting a major tournament, Lander told CBC.
"No new hotels were built in Vancouver for the World Cup, nor should they have been," he said. "So what we have, then, is a bunch of soccer fans coming into Vancouver that are going to be displacing me, where I would have come in a normal July. I'm not coming now. So the impact of the soccer tourist is going to be overstated in these numbers."
With FIFA 2026 about to descend on Canadian cities, a B.C. academic says employers pushing return-to-office mandates should give workers a break — and forcing the issue could cost them goodwill they can't afford to lose.
History of deficits in Canada
History offers limited comfort for optimists. A 2022 peer-reviewed study on the economics of the Olympics and World Cup found that of 14 tournaments held between 1966 and 2018, 11 ran deficits — with costs exceeding revenues — and only Russia's 2018 edition posted a profit, according to CBC News.
The core problem is structural: broadcast rights, ticketing, and sponsorship revenue flow to FIFA, while host nations absorb the costs of venues, infrastructure, and security, says the media outlet.
The experience of Vancouver's own 2010 Winter Olympics reinforces the skepticism. A University of B.C. study found that while overnight tourist numbers in Vancouver rose 3.8 per cent between 2009 and 2010, they declined the following year — suggesting any boost from the Games evaporated almost immediately, according to CBC News.
Canada's share of World Cup fan spending is also expected to be modest relative to its co-hosts. BMO calculates Canada will capture roughly nine per cent of total fan spending across the three host nations, assuming sellout attendance, while the U.S. is projected to receive nearly 80 per cent, according to the Toronto Star.
