‘The places most impacted by the tariffs are also the ones most affected by the loss of travel’
Canadian HR professionals may want to reassess cross‑border travel policies and activity, as a new University of Toronto study shows Canadian visits to United States metropolitan areas have dropped about 42 per cent in a year – with evidence the decline is hitting business and trade‑related travel as well as tourism.
Researchers at the University of Toronto analysed anonymised cell phone activity from Canadian devices visiting 266 U.S. metropolitan areas between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2026. They found a median 42 per cent year‑over‑year drop in visits.
This is significantly steeper than the roughly 25 per cent decline in border‑crossing data reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan) for the same period. The authors say this gap suggests official counts are not fully capturing reduced Canadian presence in U.S. cities, particularly for non‑tourism travel and freight‑related movement.
The study finds Canadians who still travel to the U.S. are visiting fewer locations and staying for shorter periods. Snowbird destinations in Florida, border‑region cities such as Buffalo and Burlington, and major centres like San Francisco, Houston, Chicago and New York are all seeing declines often in the 45 to 55 per cent range.
Here’s how a decline in business travel impacts employers, according to different sources:
A majority of North American business travellers believe their employers are not doing enough to ensure their safety during work trips, according to a previous report.
Business travel and HR implications
Co‑author and data scientist Yihoi Jung told Canadian HR Reporter the U of T team was initially interested in tourism hot spots such as Las Vegas, but quickly saw that high‑tech and financial centres were also experiencing reduced Canadian traffic.
“We were curious to see if this drop to U.S. metropolitan areas isn’t just tourism but maybe there’s other factors as well, such as financial centres or high‑tech metro areas that may have been impacted as well,” she said.
Jung noted that while the Canada Border Services Agency reports a 25-per-cent drop in travel, its data mainly reflects headline crossings and misses many business trips and freight movements. The cell‑phone‑based approach captures Canadians living temporarily in the U.S. and drivers moving goods, suggesting deeper disruption to day‑to‑day cross‑border operations. Cities such as New York and Grand Rapids, Michigan, which have close ties to Ontario’s automotive sector, are among those seeing some of the steepest declines.
For employers, Jung said tariffs and declining visitation are “straining” Canadian workers and businesses.
“A general trend that we’ve been seeing with these tariffs and with a decline in visitation to the U.S. is that this has been straining for Canadian employees and employers,” she said, pointing to the recent closure of a General Motors plant in Oshawa as one sign of pressure on automotive trade and related jobs.
“I have been using the word ‘sea change,’” lead author Karen Chapple said of the data she and her team uncovered, according to a CBC report.
“And the places most impacted by the tariffs are also the ones most affected by the loss of travel,” she said, pointing to Michigan cities such as Flint that have trade ties to Ontario’s auto sector: “These declines are really tied to the composition of the local economies.”
While the conflict in the Middle East is causing jet fuel prices to skyrocket and put some key air corridors under pressure, airlines are responding to the crisis by trimming less profitable routes and adding surcharges.
Political tensions, privacy concerns and next steps
The report links the travel decline to a mix of political and economic shocks, including:
- U.S. President Donald Trump’s November 2024 remarks about Canada as the “51st state”
- the Canadian dollar falling below US$0.70 in December 2024
- Mark Carney’s March 2025 arrival as prime minister with a stronger “Canada‑first” stance
- 25 per cent tariffs on auto parts and medium and heavy‑duty vehicles imposed in 2025.
Jung said he believes the 42-per-cent drop reflects “a culmination of all these different factors.”
Some Canadian employers are exploring diversification of trade and partnerships beyond the U.S., with Jung pointing to a recent electric vehicle‑related agreement with China as one example. He described the overall environment as highly unpredictable, complicating long‑term workforce and mobility planning for roles tied to international trade.
The study also flags an “interesting phenomenon” of Canadians leaving their primary phones at home and using temporary burner phones in the United States.
“I think Canadians are already taking some precautions with going to the States, especially in terms of what we’re seeing around surveillance,” Jung said.
