Public sector wages remain strong, Western Canada's show moderation
CLV Reports has analyzed 79 wage settlements that occurred in Canada in October, November and December of 2008. Sixty-three are in the private sector; 16 are in the public. In all the settlements, the employees were represented by a union. Eleven of the agreements are from British Columbia; seven from Quebec; five from each of Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia; three from Manitoba; one from Nunavut; and two cover more than one province. Thirty-five are from Ontario. In all, they cover 93,125 employees.
The average term of the agreements is 3.27 years. This average comprises two one-year agreements, two 18-month, five two-year, one 28-month, 43 three-year, three between three- and four-year, 13 four-year, one 57-month, and two five-year. This average is a bit longer than last quarter’s.
Seven private-sector settlements include cost-of-living formulas that may provide employees with additional wages, based on increases in the Consumer Price Index. Six agreements have an open COLA clause without any restriction if the CPI increases. In the first year, the average of their wage increases is 8.5¢ or 0.3%. With four wage freezes excluded, it becomes 25.5¢ or 0.95%. In the second year, it is 8.5¢ or 0.3%. With four freezes excluded, the average is 22.5¢ or 0.95%. In the third year, the average is 22.2¢ or 1.0%, or, with two freezes excluded, 33.3¢ or 1.45%.
One of the private-sector agreements has a limited COLA that produces increases that are subject to triggers, caps or time limits. This agreement has a wage increase of 89.0¢ or 3.25% in the first year, 85.0¢ or 3.0% in the second year and 58.0¢ or 2.0% in the third.
The 16 public-sector agreements have average wage increases of 3.4% in the first year, 3.25% in the second year and 3.3% in the third. Six agreements have a fourth year with a 2.3% average and two a fifth at 1.5%. Of note again is the length of these public-sector contracts at an average of 3.4 years.
The 56 private-sector settlements with no COLA formula provide first-year wage increases averaging 59.0¢ or 3.2%. With six wage freezes and (surprisingly) only one wage reduction excluded, this average becomes 68.5¢ or 3.7%. The second-year average of 54 agreements is 48.6¢ or 2.6%. With five freezes out, it becomes 53.8¢ or 2.85%. The third-year average of 50 agreements is 53.4¢ or 2.7%, or, with four freezes excluded, 58.3¢ or 2.85%. The average of 19 fourth-year increases is 54.1¢ or 2.6%, and, for eight fifth-year increases, 45.0¢ or 2.4%.
Fourth-quarter non-COLA increases (with wage freezes included) at 3.2%, 2.6% and 2.7% are comparable to the 3.0%, 2.8% and 2.8% seen in the third quarter of 2008. In each case, several rich Western Canada agreements are included. The corresponding averages in the second and first quarters of 2008 are 2.55%, 2.6% and 2.8%, and 2.6%, 2.9% and 2.9%, respectively, for the first, second and third years.
The Ontario Ministry of Labour’s statistics show an average annual increase of 2.7% in the private sector (up from 2.5% in the third quarter) and 3.1% in the public (up from 3.0%) for the fourth quarter of 2008 based on bargaining units over 200 with and without COLAs.
Alberta reports 5.3% in the private sector (down from 6.5% in the third quarter) and 5.1% in the public sector (up from 4.3%).
The federal department of Human Resources Skill and Development (HRSDC) reports 2.9% in the private sector (down from 3.0% in the third quarter) and 3.5% in the public sector (down from 4.5%). These averages include estimated COLA, but CLV Report’s do not.
