'For both countries, 2025 and 2026 are going to be really intense years,' says expert citing challenges for recruitment, travel, immigration
While it’s hard to stay on top of all the latest developments in the U.S. with Donald Trump as the new president, there are definite changes that could impact Canadian employers and employees.
One of the big areas is recruitment: When it comes to the border, Trump has warned of several big changes, including increased visa scrutiny, the reinstatement of travel bans, changes to the H1-B Visa program and greater border security. He has also vowed to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
These kinds of moves could significantly affect Canadian employers when it comes to hiring plans, cross-border travel, and domestic recruitment, say two experts.
“I definitely think it's going to have an impact on HR, broadly, because so much of our workforce is linked to immigration… and Trump is definitely coming in on a platform of cracking down on immigration,” says Christina Clark-Kazak, professor and director at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.
“Even if he doesn't implement to the degree that he is saying he's going to implement, people are going to make decisions based on what they think might happen.”
It’s really complicated with both the United States and Canada taking a harder stance on immigration, says immigration lawyer Eddy Ramirez, founder and CEO of Immiland Canada.
“The government of Canada is making decisions that really will impact the economy, Canadians, permanent residents, foreign workers [and] students in pretty crazy ways, at the same time that the United States has changed administration and a new president was elected. So, I believe, for both countries, 2025 and 2026 are going to be really intense years.”
Concerns about cross-border travel
A big concern with the new presidency in the U.S. is the focus on “illegal” immigrations, including the detention of undocumented migrants who are in the US unlawfully or charged with a crime, and the push to end birthright citizenship.
People who don't have a Canadian passport but are eligible to travel to the U.S. may now be hesitant to do so, says Clark-Kazak.
“For example, if someone comes from a Muslim-majority country like Iran or Pakistan — because in the past, Trump has put in these bans literally overnight — they’ll still be hesitant to travel, even if it hasn't been announced yet, because they're worried about that and or they're worried about the discretion of border agents,” she says.
“Just because you have a visa to go into the U.S. doesn't necessarily mean an immigration official is going to allow you in.”
There could also be longer wait times for visa approvals of people who don't hold Canadian passports, she says.
“It’s going to be more difficult for them to do business there, because they need to be more organized... and that costs companies time and money.”
As a result, employers may choose not to send certain employees to the U.S. for conferences or meetings, and instead choose the virtual option, says Clark-Kazak.
“It increases the uncertainty, so people are just less likely to want be willing to travel, even if they are currently permitted to do so.”
If a worker has a good visitor visa for business purposes, it should be OK to travel to the States, says Ramirez. But if it’s a visitor visa to attend a conference, that could be complicated.
“These employers [should] take proper measures, and [realize] ‘OK, now there is an administration that is more against immigrants, and they will be more aware if these immigrants are going to stay in [that] country… so they should take measures and apply for business or visitor visas and not send their workers ‘just like that.’”
Moving to Canada to escape U.S.
Given the divisive political climate south of the border, some U.S. residents may consider a permanent move to Canada, which could be good news for Canadian employers looking for talent. Canada could become a more attractive destination for many skilled immigrants, and international students, with programs like the Global Talent Stream offering fast-track pathways.
For example, dual citizens may be lured north, says Clark-Kazak.
“In the higher education sector, for example, people who can move, who don't support Trump's policies and don't want to be in the U.S. during the next four years, they're already starting to look for other opportunities,” she says.
“I think the main thing that we see is basically companies bracing for not being able to hire as many internationally trained people in the U.S., and then some people who have the possibility of moving north will move north to Canada.”
People in the United States who want to avoid being deported will also want to come to Canada, says Ramirez.
“They cannot apply for refugee status [but] they can explore other areas, such as humanitarian and compassionate considerations, PNPs [provincial nominee programs]… they will find ways to come and stay.”
That’s especially true given Canada’s record of welcoming immigrants, she says.
“Regardless of what the government is doing right now… people outside of the country see Canada [as] that heaven... and you cannot change the marketing that you created for decades and decades just one day to the other... that's not going to happen.”
Doors closing to immigration
With stricter regulations for temporary workers in the U.S., Canada's Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program could prove more attractive to many immigrations.
However, this country is also starting to close the pathways, with reduced levels for immigration, temporary workers, humanitarian streams, and private sponsorship of refugees, and then caps on international students, says Clark-Kazak.
“[The latter] used to be actually a good source of skilled labour for companies in Canada, because basically you get very smart people who are coming to Canada to study, but then they get credentialed in Canada,” she says.
“Now, the federal government is basically signaling that the conversion of the temporary to the permanent residency is going to be much more difficult to do and is not guaranteed. So that means that part of the incentive for coming here and studying has been lost.”
The lack of clarity and quick changes do not make things easy, she says.
“It's a very uncertain policy landscape where the students, the administrators and even the provinces don't fully understand what the federal government is going to do from one day to the next. So that makes it very difficult to take decisions at all those levels.”
Higher hiring costs for employers
The government has made “crazy changes,” lately, says Ramirez, citing minimum wage rates for temporary foreign workers in certain sectors, which has led to unrealistic salary levels.
“You're paying a welder, or a legal assistant, a fixed salary of… $70,000, $80,000, $90,000 because it has to be in the median, and employers will not be able to pay that,” she says; as a result, many Canadian employers are looking for people in Canada.
And as of Jan. 21, Canada is restricting Open Work Permit (OWP) eligibility for spouses of international students to those enrolled in specific academic programs, while eligibility for spouses of foreign workers will be limited to workers employed in targeted roles under the National Occupational Classification (NOC).
“There will be less open work permits so employers are going to be in a really complicated situation where they cannot find the people in Canada but, at the same time, if they want to bring [people] from abroad, they have to pay X amount, which is really sometimes outside of the scope of what they can afford,” says Ramirez.
Canada-first hiring practices
All of these changes, from both Canadian and U.S. governments, could see Canadian employers increasingly focused on domestic talent for their staffing needs, says Clark-Kazak.
“This fits in with the sort of protectionist kind of approach. Because the U.S. is saying, ‘U.S. first’ with the tariff, and then Canada might retaliate. But then there's also this notion of ‘OK, we need to hire Canadians first as well,’ not only because of the travel restrictions, and because these people have time-bound visas, but also because there's a sense [of] shrinking and inward looking, generally speaking, both in terms of immigration, but also trade.”
Could that lead to greater co-operation or fewer barriers when it comes to interprovincial mobility of workers?
It’s difficult to know, she says, citing one common challenge of people having to wait for health care coverage to kick in when they move.
“Provincial governments would be quite hesitant to waive some of those kinds of things,” says Clark-Kazak, though she cites regions like the Maritimes that have waived certain requirements to attract more workers.
“I do think there is an element of feeling like, ‘Okay, we should be cooperating more within Canada and cross-provincially.’”
Uncertainty of tariffs means job losses
As for the expected tariffs threatened by Trump, the immediate impact will be on US consumers, says Clark-Kazak, but there are already some companies saying that they might move production out of Canada — which will mean job losses.
And there’s a linkage here to the immigration question, she says.
“A lot of immigrants and newcomers are in more precarious jobs where they have just a contract or something like that. So those people are more likely to lose their jobs first, and those people are more likely to have their ability to stay in Canada linked to their job,” she says.
“If we end up getting into like a tariff tit-for-tat, then that just escalates the economic impact on both sides of the border, and it creates more economic uncertainty, both for companies, but also for people who are looking for jobs.”
And that brings up the important issue of retention, because Canada has a problem when it comes to retaining immigrants, says Clark-Kazak.
“People come here with the intention of moving permanently [but] in the past five years, we've seen a growing number of people actually leave Canada… [if] people can't get a permanent job, they can't buy a house, they can't settle in, then they're going to say, ‘Okay, well, this is not a long-term prospect for me.’ And so they're starting to leave.”
