Just 16 per cent of companies intend to hire in Q1: survey
The five-year trend of employment expansion will come to an end early next year according to a study performed by staffing firm Manpower Inc.
The survey of nearly 1,700 Canadian companies indicates that hiring activity in the first quarter of 2002 will be considerably lower than for the same period in 2001.
Sixteen per cent of respondents said they plan to hire staff at the beginning of next year (down from 23 per cent last year), but 17 per cent foresee employment declines. Fifty-nine per cent said they anticipate no change.
The upcoming quarter is the first negative outlook recorded since the beginning of 1996. The five-year employment boom appears to be over.
The results are consistent with a world-wide economic slowdown, said Steve Walker, vice-president and general manager of Canadian operations at Manpower.
However, while present expectations represent a significant drop from those of the same periods of the past two years, Walker termed those earlier quarters as exceptional. “Only once in the survey’s history has a first quarter outlook exceeded those of the past two years,” he said. Walker said that the beginning of the year is frequently negative due to a combination of economic conditions and the winter climate.
Bucking the trend, education employers report a continuing need for workers and public administration units anticipate further recruiting. The private sector finance, insurance and real estate firms are the most optimistic.
The results by industry:
Mining: Although slipping well below the unusual level of last year, mining companies remain among the most optimistic as 19 per cent continue further recruiting and 10 per cent expect cutbacks.
Construction First quarter outlooks are almost always negative, but the current forecast is the bleakest in six years with 15 per cent still hiring, but a high 29 per cent reducing employment.
Durable goods manufacturing: Following relatively weak expectations in the past year, only 12 per cent now plan additional hiring while 22 per cent say they will trim down.
Non-durable goods manufacturing:The outlook is commonly negative at this season, but present perspectives are weaker than at any time since 1994 with just 14per cent seeking more workers and 20 per cent planning staff declines.
Transportation and public utilities: Only once since 1989 were prospects brighter at the beginning of the year than the current level of 22 per cent adding people and 13 per cent trimming down.
Wholesale and retail trades: With the loss of special holiday help, wholesale and retail trades has been positive only once in the past 13 years. Now 15 per cent continue to search for new workers while 23 per cent will shed staff.
Finance, insurance and real estate:The industry is one of only two with prospects brighter than those of one year ago as 23 per cent expect to add to employment rolls and just 8 per cent say they will reduce staff.
Education (public and private):The serious shortage of workers in this field continues unabated with 21 per cent anticipating further hiring and only 1 per cent seeking employment declines.
Services: In an abrupt decline from the position of last year, 15 per cent of services forecast increased staffing, but another 15 per cent foresee decreases.
Public administration: Government units remain among the nation’s most active employers with 18 per cent anticipating additional hiring and 6 per cent planning reductions. Although below the level of the past two years, present expectations nonetheless exceed those of the previous 10 years at this season.
The survey of nearly 1,700 Canadian companies indicates that hiring activity in the first quarter of 2002 will be considerably lower than for the same period in 2001.
Sixteen per cent of respondents said they plan to hire staff at the beginning of next year (down from 23 per cent last year), but 17 per cent foresee employment declines. Fifty-nine per cent said they anticipate no change.
The upcoming quarter is the first negative outlook recorded since the beginning of 1996. The five-year employment boom appears to be over.
The results are consistent with a world-wide economic slowdown, said Steve Walker, vice-president and general manager of Canadian operations at Manpower.
However, while present expectations represent a significant drop from those of the same periods of the past two years, Walker termed those earlier quarters as exceptional. “Only once in the survey’s history has a first quarter outlook exceeded those of the past two years,” he said. Walker said that the beginning of the year is frequently negative due to a combination of economic conditions and the winter climate.
Bucking the trend, education employers report a continuing need for workers and public administration units anticipate further recruiting. The private sector finance, insurance and real estate firms are the most optimistic.
The results by industry:
Mining: Although slipping well below the unusual level of last year, mining companies remain among the most optimistic as 19 per cent continue further recruiting and 10 per cent expect cutbacks.
Construction First quarter outlooks are almost always negative, but the current forecast is the bleakest in six years with 15 per cent still hiring, but a high 29 per cent reducing employment.
Durable goods manufacturing: Following relatively weak expectations in the past year, only 12 per cent now plan additional hiring while 22 per cent say they will trim down.
Non-durable goods manufacturing:The outlook is commonly negative at this season, but present perspectives are weaker than at any time since 1994 with just 14per cent seeking more workers and 20 per cent planning staff declines.
Transportation and public utilities: Only once since 1989 were prospects brighter at the beginning of the year than the current level of 22 per cent adding people and 13 per cent trimming down.
Wholesale and retail trades: With the loss of special holiday help, wholesale and retail trades has been positive only once in the past 13 years. Now 15 per cent continue to search for new workers while 23 per cent will shed staff.
Finance, insurance and real estate:The industry is one of only two with prospects brighter than those of one year ago as 23 per cent expect to add to employment rolls and just 8 per cent say they will reduce staff.
Education (public and private):The serious shortage of workers in this field continues unabated with 21 per cent anticipating further hiring and only 1 per cent seeking employment declines.
Services: In an abrupt decline from the position of last year, 15 per cent of services forecast increased staffing, but another 15 per cent foresee decreases.
Public administration: Government units remain among the nation’s most active employers with 18 per cent anticipating additional hiring and 6 per cent planning reductions. Although below the level of the past two years, present expectations nonetheless exceed those of the previous 10 years at this season.
