Canada’s labour market is moving deeper into a phase of selective hiring. Vacancies are well below their peaks even as the core working-age population inches higher, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, and tenure is slipping in several white-collar and service industries. For HR leaders, this is a market with more candidates, but where retention, internal equity, and procedural fairness are under closer scrutiny from both regulators and tribunals.
Strategic HR, November Edition
Cooling vacancies, firmer wages, and a more selective labour market
Canada’s labour market is moving deeper into a phase of selective hiring. Vacancies are well below their peaks even as the core working-age population inches higher, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, and tenure is slipping in several white-collar and service industries. For HR leaders, this is a market with more candidates, but where retention, internal equity, and procedural fairness are under closer scrutiny from both regulators and tribunals.
Across the data, three themes recur. First, labour demand is cooling in most sectors, but not collapsing, with pockets of persistent tightness in client-facing and public service roles. Second, wage growth has broadened into utilities, education, health care, and public administration, raising internal relativities issues for employers in those fields. Third, litigation and regulatory enforcement are increasingly focused on process – reprisals, documentation, and compliance – rather than pure redundancy volumes, underscoring the need for robust HR governance.
Executive overview
- Vacancies fell by about 85,000 positions year-on-year in August, even as payroll employment rose modestly.
- The national vacancy rate dropped from roughly 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent between August 2023 and August 2024, while inching up slightly month-on-month, which shows that Canada is generating fewer jobs.
- Payroll employment for August rose by about 73,000 year-on-year, but declined by roughly 204,000 compared with July, hinting at slower hiring or seasonal adjustment.
- HR takeaway: Expect larger candidate pools per posting as jobs are slimer.
- All industries recorded a year-on-year decrease in job vacancies; the best performers were those where vacancy rates merely held steady or fell more gently.
- Information and cultural industries held their vacancy rate at about 1.7 percent year-on-year, as total vacancies declined only –1.1 percent, the lowest decrease across industries. Sectors such as agriculture, real estate, and arts and recreation also saw only modest declines in available jobs.
- Service industries, including accommodation and food services and wholesale trade, still carry above-average vacancy rates despite year-on-year falls, pointing to continuing recruitment challenges.
- HR takeaway: The workforce undergoes its loss of job creation from last month, but accelerated, as not one industry has observed any increase in available jobs over one year ago.
- Median hourly wages for employees rose from about $33.65 in October 2023 to $35.00 in October 2024, an increase of roughly 4 percent.
- Over the same period, the consumer price index (2002 = 100) rose from 161.8 to 165.3, an increase of about 2.2 percent, meaning real wages improved.
- The real-wage index (rebased so the latest month = 100 last year) climbed from 100 to around 101.8, implying a year-over-year real gain of nearly 1.8 percent.
- HR takeaway: For a second month, inflation has outpaced real wages year-over-year as inflation continues to climb, and median wages haven’t moved due to low job competition.
- Utilities saw the strongest wage growth, with median hourly pay rising from about $53.25 to $56.78, an increase of roughly 6.6 percent.
- Educational services and public administration followed, with wage growth of around 5.8 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, reflecting persistent demand for skilled public-sector labour.
- Health care and social assistance, other services, wholesale, and retail trade, and finance and insurance also posted wage growth above the national average.
- HR takeaway: With the decline of previous wage leaders, namely, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; and information, culture and recreation, public sector roles are now leading year-over-year wage gains. Private employers competing with the public sector should reassess their pay positioning and non-cash offerings.
- Only seven major industries recorded a widening gender pay gap year-on-year; in many others, the gap narrowed or remained stable.
- The sharpest increase in the gender pay gap was in Other services (except public administration), where the gap as a share of men’s wages rose from about 10.1 percent to 15.6 percent.
- Manufacturing, public administration, accommodation and food services, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, and information, culture and recreation also saw modest widening of their gaps.
- HR takeaway: While the national picture is mixed, specific sectors have moved backwards; employers in those fields should audit pay decisions over the past year and review promotion and job-evaluation practices.
- Tenure declined most sharply in information, culture, and recreation, falling from about 97.2 to 89.4 months, a drop of roughly 8 percent.
- Business, building and other support services, manufacturing, and professional services saw tenure fall by between 2 percent and 3.3 percent.
- Construction, transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, finance, health care, and public administration all experienced smaller but noticeable declines.
- HR takeaway: Tenure is eroding fastest in knowledge-intensive and service industries, increasing the cost of turnover and the risk of skill gaps.
- The Ontario Labour Relations Board recorded the largest year-on-year increase, with cases rising from 444 to 480 (+36).
- Saskatchewan’s Workers’ Compensation Board Appeal Tribunal saw an increase from 0 to 19 cases, and Alberta’s Appeals Commission for Workers’ Compensation moved from 52 to 69 (+17).
- Quebec’s Commission for Standards, Equity, Health and Safety at Work and the federal FP Canada Standards Council both recorded smaller but notable increases.
- HR takeaway: Case volumes are rising in bodies that oversee employment standards, health and safety, and professional conduct, with a strong emphasis on reprisal, documentation, and compliance.
- The core working-age population (25–64) rose from about 18.08 million in October 2023 to 18.34 million in October 2024, an increase of roughly 262,000 people (1.4 percent).
- The month-on-month change between September and October 2024 was smaller at around 25,000, indicating a steady rather than explosive pace of growth.
- This expanding labour supply sits alongside falling vacancies and rising employment, pointing to a more balanced labour market.
- HR takeaway: Employers can expect deeper candidate pools, particularly in urban centres, but must work harder to differentiate themselves to attract high-calibre hires.
- Alberta recorded the fastest provincial workforce growth, with labour-force levels rising by about 3.5 percent year-on-year (+95,100 people).
- Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Quebec, Manitoba, and Prince Edward Island all posted labour-force growth above 1 percent, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw a small decline.
- Among cities, St. John’s grew the fastest at around 5.6 percent, followed by Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Saskatoon, Montréal, and Vancouver. Ottawa–Gatineau was a notable outlier, with a decline of about 2.2 percent.
- HR takeaway: The geography of growth continues to favour the Prairies and selected Atlantic and urban markets. Multi-hub recruitment strategies and differentiated EVPs by location remain critical.
- The unemployment rate for 25- to 64-year-olds rose from about 5.15 percent in October 2023 to 5.27 percent in October 2024, a modest increase of around 0.1 percentage points.
- Men’s unemployment rate was essentially flat, edging down from roughly 5.28 percent to 5.26 percent, while women’s rose from about 5.02 percent to 5.29 percent.
- Unemployment spiked in August 2024, reaching about 6.92 percent overall and 7.79 percent for women, before easing back in September and October.
- HR takeaway: Overall conditions remain relatively stable, but women have borne a disproportionate share of the recent uptick in unemployment, which may influence candidate expectations and perceptions of fairness.
- Among 25- to 59-year-olds, unemployment is highest for younger workers: in October 2024, the rate was about 9.1 percent for 20- to 29-year-olds, compared with 4.9 percent for 30- to 39-year-olds, 4.7 percent for 40- to 49-year-olds, and 4.3 percent for 50- to 59-year-olds.
- Year-on-year, unemployment for 20- to 29-year-olds rose from around 7.4 percent to 9.1 percent, while falling for 30- to 39-year-olds and remaining broadly stable for older groups.
- By education level, unemployment in October 2024 was about 9.3 percent for those without a degree or certificate, 6.9 percent for high-school graduates, 5.2 percent for those with postsecondary certificates or diplomas, 4.6 percent for bachelor’s degree holders, and 4.3 percent for those with education above bachelor’s level.
- HR takeaway: Early-career and less-educated workers face the toughest labour-market conditions, while highly educated workers remain relatively insulated. Employers can tap into this resource by investing in structured entry-level roles and internal upskilling.
Strategic HR: November edition
1. Job vacancies
1. A. National job vacancy trends
Nationally, job vacancies have continued to ease. In August 2023, there were about 567,700 vacancies, and by August 2024, that number had fallen to approximately 482,500, a decline of roughly 15 percent. Over the same period, payroll employment rose from about 17.37 million to 17.44 million, an increase of around 73,000 jobs. This combination – a smaller number of open roles and a larger number of people in work – suggests employers are progressing further into a post-pandemic normal, where the balance of power is more even between employer and candidate. Nevertheless, in August, the number of employed people in Canada saw their sharpest drop since last February. This, paired with a fall-off of job vacancies, shows that job and team growth are slowing.
The vacancy rate, calculated as vacancies divided by the sum of vacancies and payroll employees, fell from around 3.2 percent in August 2023 to approximately 2.7 percent in August 2024. That half-percentage-point drop is material for HR teams: it translates into more applicants per role and fewer urgent “hard-to-fill” requisitions. Compared with July 2024, however, August vacancies nudged up from roughly 477,200 to 482,500, even as payrolls fell by more than 200,000. It will be worth monitoring in December if jobs continue to rise, absorbing more employment.
For HR leaders, like last month, the practical meaning is that hiring managers no longer need to rush to secure candidates at any price. Selection processes can be more structured, competency-based interviews can be enforced more consistently, and there is space for stronger shortlists rather than single-candidate pipelines.
Employee-competition cooling also feeds directly into wage bargaining. With fewer open roles, employees have less leverage to jump for large pay rises elsewhere, reducing the need for aggressive counteroffers. Yet, as later sections show, wage growth remains firm in several sectors. Therefore, HR teams should treat the lower vacancy rate as breathing room to professionalize hiring and refine workforce plans, not as a signal that retention risk has disappeared.
1. B. Industry-specific vacancies
For the first time in six months, in August every major industry experienced a decline in its number of available jobs year-over-year. The least affected sector, information and cultural industries, held its vacancy rate at roughly 1.7 percent, registering only a marginal year-on-year change. For HR leaders in media, technology, and cultural institutions, this stability implies continued difficulty in filling specialist roles, even as the wider economy softens.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting saw its vacancy rate edge down from about 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent. Real estate and rental and leasing moved from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent, and arts, entertainment and recreation from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent. Therefore, these sectors remain reasonably tight by historical standards, but the direction of travel is clearly toward easier hiring. Most of the decline reflects fewer jobs being posted rather than a surge in new hires, which is consistent with more cautious expansion plans and closer scrutiny of discretionary roles.
The pattern is similar in core goods and services industries. Manufacturing’s vacancy rate fell from around 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent, construction’s from 3.4 percent to 3 percent, and professional, scientific, and technical services from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent. Even after these declines, however, vacancy rates remain above the national average in several of these fields, particularly construction and professional services. For HR teams in these sectors, the message is not that the war for talent is over, but that it is more targeted. The hardest-to-fill roles are likely to be experienced tradespeople, engineers, and senior professional staff, not entry-level positions.
Service-heavy industries such as wholesale trade, accommodation and food services, and public administration also show year-on-year declines in vacancy rates, but from elevated starting points. Accommodation and food services, for example, falls from about 4.6 percent to 4.2 percent, still one of the highest vacancy rates in the economy. In practice, this means that while there may be more applicants per posting, frontline roles in hospitality and tourism still require active sourcing, improved scheduling flexibility, and tighter retention strategies to avoid churn.
When set alongside the wage trends in Section 2, the industry data suggest that HR teams should re-prioritize their recruitment budgets. Rather than treating all vacancies as equally urgent, HR can focus resources on sectors and roles where vacancy rates remain above the national average and wage pressures are highest – utilities, health care, education, and public administration – while tightening requisition approval for roles in sectors where vacancy rates have normalized or fallen sharply.
2. Wages
2. A. Wages vs. inflation
National wage and price data confirm that, for the first time in several years, nominal pay increases are outpacing inflation in a sustained way. Between October 2023 and October 2024, the median hourly wage moved from around $33.65 to $35.00, a gain of $1.35 or just over 4 percent. Over the same period, the consumer price index edged up from 161.8 to 165.3, roughly 2.2 percent inflation. The arithmetic translates into genuine improvement in real purchasing power for the median employee.
On the rebased scale that takes October 2023 as 100, October 2024 stands at about 101.8. That is a modest real gain of nearly 1.8 percent, or roughly $0.60 in inflation-adjusted hourly terms. For HR, this means that employees who received around the national median pay increase will have felt slightly better off, not merely “kept whole” against inflation.
However, this average conceals significant dispersion. Earlier sections show that vacancies have fallen most in cyclical and lower-paid sectors, while wage growth (Section 2.B) has been strongest in utilities, education, health care, and public administration. In organizations that span multiple industries or job families, some groups of employees will have seen real wage gains well above the national figure, while others may have experienced pay freezes or increases below inflation. This is fertile ground for internal equity disputes and pressure to explain reward decisions.
The profile of wage growth through the year also matters. Real-wage indices were strongest in mid-2024, with values above 102 in July and August, before easing back slightly to around 101.8 in October. Employers who implemented pay awards early in the year, when inflation was still elevated, may find that their awards now look more generous in real terms than intended. Conversely, organizations that delayed wage decisions may be able to deliver smaller nominal rises while still preserving employees’ purchasing power.
Finally, the interaction between wages and vacancies should shape HR strategy. With the vacancy rate down and real wages up, the labour market looks less like an emergency and more like a conventional late-cycle environment characterized by moderate growth, higher selectivity, and more discrimination between high- and low-performing employees. HR leaders can use this window to implement more structured pay frameworks, sharpen variable pay schemes, and link pay progression more clearly to capability and performance.
2. B. Industry-specific median wage change
The industry breakdown of median wages reveals where wage pressures are most intense. Among major sectors, utilities lead the field: median hourly wages rose from about $53.25 to $56.78 between the two Octobers, a $3.53 increase equivalent to roughly 6.6 percent year-on-year. This reflects the scarcity of highly skilled technicians and engineers, the capital-intensive nature of the sector, and the premium attached to safety-critical work. HR teams in utilities will need to rely not only on pay, but also on strong apprenticeship pipelines and retention bonuses, to keep control over turnover.
Educational services recorded median wage growth from about $41.70 to $44.12, an increase of $2.42 or 5.8 percent. Public administration saw a similar move, from roughly $45.39 to $48.02, a $2.63 increase equating to about 5.8 percent as well. These figures underscore growing pressure on public-sector payrolls: governments and public agencies are having to pay more to attract and retain teachers, administrators, and policy professionals. For private employers that rely on similar skill sets – such as training providers, policy consultancies, or regulated service firms – competing with these public-sector wage levels will require careful calibration of total reward, including pensions, leave, and flexible working.
Health care and social assistance recorded a median wage increase from about $34.75 to $36.64 (5.4 percent), while other services (except public administration) rose from roughly $33.11 to $34.67 (4.7 percent). Wholesale and retail trade moved from $30.53 to $31.88 (4.4 percent), and finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing from about $44.60 to $46.55 (4.4 percent). Manufacturing and information, culture and recreation also saw solid gains of around 4.3 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
From an HR standpoint, these sectoral patterns suggest that wage growth is no longer confined to a narrow band of high-tech and professional services roles. Instead, it is becoming increasingly concentrated in public-sector roles.
In practical terms, HR teams should review pay bands and market data for roles in utilities-adjacent functions (such as energy procurement, facilities engineering, and safety), public-facing services (education, health, social care), and customer-intensive retail or financial roles. If internal ranges lag the market by more than a few percentage points, recruitment may become progressively harder even as headline vacancy rates fall.
2. C. Industry-specific gender wage gap
The gender wage gap data measure the difference between men’s and women’s median hourly wages as a proportion of men’s pay, comparing October 2023 with October 2024 for each industry. In other services (except public administration), men’s median wage moved from about $31.00 to $32.50, while women’s rose from roughly $27.86 to $27.44. That shift means the gender gap widened from around 10.1 percent to approximately 15.6 percent of men’s wages, a relative increase of more than 50 percent in the gap size.
Manufacturing shows a similar, though less pronounced, pattern. Men’s median wage rose from about $31.40 to $33.80, and women’s from roughly $28.85 to $30.00. The gap widened from about 8.1 percent to 11.2 percent of men’s wages, a substantial relative increase. In public administration, the gap rose from about 11.4 percent to 14.6 percent, with men’s median wage moving from $46.00 to $49.33 and women’s from $40.77 to $42.12. These patterns suggest that in several sectors, men have captured a disproportionate share of the higher wage growth.
Accommodation and food services saw a smaller gap widening, from around 5.0 percent to 6.2 percent, while wholesale and retail trade moved from approximately 15.6 percent to 18.6 percent. In finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing, the gender wage gap is among the largest in level terms, increasing from about 19.7 percent to 22.0 percent. Information, culture, and recreation shows only a minor widening, from roughly 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent, but remains an area to monitor.
Some industries, including health care and social assistance; transportation and warehousing; and professional, scientific, and technical services, recorded narrowing gaps over the same period. At the aggregate level, the total-economy gap actually shrank slightly, reflecting faster wage growth for women overall. Yet, the sectors listed above represent material pockets of regression, where wage decisions over the past year have increased rather than reduced gender disparities.
3. Tenure and litigation
3. A. Average months of tenure by industry
Average tenure figures reveal a gradual erosion of job stability in several key sectors. The steepest decline is in information, culture and recreation, where average tenure fell from roughly 97.2 months (just over eight years) to about 89.4 months (just under 7½ years), an 8.0 percent drop. This aligns with the sector’s relatively steady vacancy rates and solid wage growth: employers are hiring and paying more, but they are also experiencing greater churn among skilled staff.
Business, building and other support services saw tenure fall from around 86.9 to 84.0 months, a decline of about 3.3 percent. Manufacturing’s average tenure slipped from approximately 118.8 to 115.3 months, while professional, scientific, and technical services declined from about 88.9 to 87.1 months. Although these changes might appear small on a single-year view, they are significant when compounded: a series of two- or three-percent annual declines can, over time, meaningfully reduce institutional memory and supervisory depth.
Construction, transportation and warehousing; accommodation and food services; finance and insurance; health care and social assistance; and public administration each showed more modest reductions in tenure, generally in the range of 0.7 percent to 1.6 percent. Even these small shifts matter, particularly in sectors with high regulatory or safety demands, where experienced supervisors and managers play a disproportionate role in ensuring compliance and quality.
To respond, HR leaders should strengthen internal career paths, especially for early- to mid-career staff in high-turnover departments. Clear progression frameworks, rotational assignments, and targeted retention bonuses for critical technical and supervisory roles can help slow the erosion of tenure. At the same time, onboarding and knowledge-management processes should be reviewed to ensure that when departures do occur, key know-how is not lost.
3. B. Tribunal cases
- The Ontario Labour Relations Board recorded the largest year-on-year increase, with cases rising from 444 to 480 (+36).
- Saskatchewan’s Workers’ Compensation Board Appeal Tribunal saw an increase from 0 to 19 cases, and Alberta’s Appeals Commission for Workers’ Compensation moved from 52 to 69 (+17).
- Quebec’s Commission for Standards, Equity, Health and Safety at Work and the federal FP Canada Standards Council both recorded smaller but notable increases.
- HR takeaway: Case volumes are rising in bodies that oversee employment standards, health and safety, and professional conduct, with a strong emphasis on reprisal, documentation, and compliance.
This month’s tribunal data focus on five bodies with the largest increases in case volumes between 2024 and 2025. The Ontario Labour Relations Board (OLRB) leads in absolute terms, with cases rising from 444 to 480, an increase of 36. Saskatchewan’s Workers’ Compensation Board Appeal Tribunal increased from 0 to 19 cases, while Alberta’s Appeals Commission for Workers’ Compensation went from 52 to 69, a rise of 17. Quebec’s Commission for Standards, Equity, Health and Safety at Work (CNESST) saw its caseload move from 38 to 46, and the federal FP Canada Standards Council, which oversees professional standards for financial planners, recorded an increase from 0 to 4 cases.
The decision text for the OLRB illustrates the nature of current disputes. Recent cases reference applications alleging reprisal, disputes over delivery and completeness of documents, applications for review of amounts owing, questions about prima facie evidence, and allegations of unfair labour practices in union certification drives. These themes point toward workplace conflicts where employees challenge not only outcomes – such as dismissal or discipline – but the fairness and transparency of the processes used by employers.
At the CNESST, the descriptions refer to complaints concerning working conditions, equity, occupational health and safety, and the financing of workplace accident regimes. Cases often turn on whether employers complied with statutory duties around safe work, accommodation, and the handling of injury-related absences. The workers’ compensation appeal tribunals in Saskatchewan and Alberta similarly centre on entitlement to benefits, assessments of medical evidence, and cost sharing between employers and compensation funds.
The FP Canada Standards Council decisions focus on professional conduct in the financial planning sector. Recent cases reference client relationships, the role of referral agents, and the recording of clients’ risk tolerance. For HR professionals in financial services, these decisions underline the need to align performance incentives with client outcomes, ensure comprehensive documentation of advice, and train advisers on conflicts of interest and suitability obligations.
Taken together, the tribunal data show that while the total number of cases across all bodies may fluctuate, the intensity of scrutiny in certain areas is rising. Employers should assume that decisions about discipline, dismissal, reprisal claims, and workers’ compensation will be reviewed not only on their substantive merits but also on procedural fairness. For HR, that means investing in manager training on investigations, documentation, and communication; aligning internal policies with statutory requirements; and ensuring that grievance and appeal processes are robust and timely.
4. Workforce
4. A. National working population trend
- The core working-age population (25–64) rose from about 18.08 million in October 2023 to 18.34 million in October 2024, an increase of roughly 262,000 people (1.4 percent).
- The month-on-month change between September and October 2024 was smaller, at around 25,000, indicating a steady rather than explosive pace of growth.
- This expanding labour supply sits alongside falling vacancies and rising employment, pointing to a more balanced labour market.
- HR takeaway: Employers can expect deeper candidate pools, particularly in urban centres, but must work harder to differentiate themselves to attract high-calibre hires.
The national working population data show a continued rise in the number of Canadians aged 25–64 participating in the labour market. In October 2023, there were roughly 18.08 million people in this core working-age bracket, and by October 2024, the number had risen to about 18.34 million. That 1.4 percent increase, equivalent to roughly 262,000 additional potential workers, reflects both population growth and ongoing efforts to draw more people into the labour force.
The month-to-month movement into October 2024 is more modest. From September to October, the working population rose from around 18.32 million to 18.34 million, an increase of about 25,000. This steady pace reinforces the picture of a maturing labour market: growth is sufficient to sustain the economy, but not so rapid as to create dramatic surpluses of labour in any one region or sector.
When set alongside the vacancy data in Section 1 and the unemployment figures in Section 6, the implications for HR are nuanced. On the one hand, there are more people available for work and vacancy rates have fallen. Therefore, employers can be more selective and may find it easier to fill roles that were difficult to staff in 2022–23. On the other hand, wage growth remains relatively strong in key sectors, and tenure is slipping in others. High-performing employees still have options, especially in urban labour markets where population growth is concentrated.
The expanding working population also has compositional dimensions. Immigration and interprovincial mobility contribute to growth in certain regions, as Section 5.B shows, with Alberta and several urban centres recording above-average labour-force growth. HR leaders operating nationally should not assume that talent is evenly distributed; instead, they should think in terms of networks of regional labour markets, each with its own dynamics.
To adapt, employers can widen remote-eligible footprints, consider multi-hub staffing models – for example, pairing Toronto roles with Calgary or Winnipeg candidates – and invest in structured early-career programs that tap into the growing cohort of younger workers. At the same time, workforce planning should account for the aging of the upper half of the 25–64 bracket, especially in sectors where tenure remains high and retirements are imminent.
4. B. Provincial and city workforce changes
- Alberta recorded the fastest provincial workforce growth, with labour-force levels rising by about 3.5 percent year-on-year (+95,100 people).
- Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Quebec, Manitoba, and Prince Edward Island all posted labour-force growth above 1 percent, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw a small decline.
- Among cities, St. John’s grew the fastest at around 5.6 percent, followed by Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Saskatoon, Montréal, and Vancouver. Ottawa–Gatineau was a notable outlier, with a decline of about 2.2 percent.
- HR takeaway: The geography of growth continues to favour the Prairies and selected Atlantic and urban markets as multi-hub recruitment strategies and differentiated EVPs by location remain critical.
Provincial labour-force figures show Alberta consolidating its position as Canada’s growth leader. The province’s labour force increased by about 3.5 percent over the year, adding roughly 95,100 people. Saskatchewan also performed strongly, with growth of about 2.3 percent (+14,500), while New Brunswick grew by approximately 1.9 percent (+8,100). British Columbia and Quebec recorded gains of around 1.7 percent (+53,100) and 1.5 percent (+73,400), respectively, with Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, and Ontario posting more moderate growth.
At the other end of the spectrum, Newfoundland and Labrador saw its labour force shrink by about 0.6 percent, equivalent to around 1,600 fewer participants. Nova Scotia’s labour force expanded only marginally, by around 0.3 percent. For employers in these slower-growing provinces, recruitment challenges may persist even as national vacancy rates fall, particularly in specialized roles or in smaller communities.
City-level data paint a more granular picture. St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, recorded the fastest labour-force growth among the tracked cities at approximately 5.6 percent, equal to about 7,400 additional participants. Calgary followed with growth of roughly 2.8 percent (+29,000), and Winnipeg with around 2.6 percent (+14,000). Toronto’s labour force rose by about 1.3 percent (+50,700), while Saskatoon, Montréal, and Vancouver posted gains between 0.9 percent and 1.1 percent.
Notably, Ottawa–Gatineau recorded a decline in its labour force of about 2.2 percent, equivalent to roughly 20,600 fewer participants. This may reflect a combination of federal workforce adjustments, remote-work migration, and shifts in the region’s industry mix. For HR teams in the National Capital Region, the result is a somewhat tighter local labour market, particularly for public-sector-adjacent and knowledge-intensive roles.
The divergences between provincial and city trends are instructive. In several cases, major cities outpace their provinces (for example, Calgary vs. Alberta overall, Winnipeg vs. Manitoba), creating localized hot spots of labour demand and supply. In others, city growth lags provincial growth or even goes into reverse, as in Ottawa–Gatineau relative to Ontario and Quebec. Therefore, HR leaders should avoid overreliance on national or provincial averages when planning recruitment; instead, they should track labour-force dynamics in the specific urban areas where they hire.
Practically, this supports a multi-hub approach. Employers can pair high-cost, high-competition hubs such as Toronto and Vancouver with secondary cities like Calgary, Winnipeg, and St. John’s, which are experiencing strong growth but still offer lower costs or less intense bidding pressure for talent. At the same time, differentiated employee value propositions – emphasizing career-path clarity and flexible arrangements in softer markets, and compensation and progression in tighter ones – will be necessary to attract and retain staff.
5. Unemployment
5. A. General unemployment by gender
- The unemployment rate for 25- to 64-year-olds rose from about 5.15 percent in October 2023 to 5.27 percent in October 2024, a modest increase of around 0.1 percentage points.
- Men’s unemployment rate was essentially flat, edging down from roughly 5.28 percent to 5.26 percent, while women’s rose from about 5.02 percent to 5.29 percent.
- Unemployment spiked in August 2024, reaching about 6.92 percent overall and 7.79 percent for women, before easing back in September and October.
- HR takeaway: Overall conditions remain relatively stable, but women have borne a disproportionate share of the recent uptick in unemployment, which may influence candidate expectations and perceptions of fairness.
The general unemployment data for 25- to 64-year-olds suggest a labour market that is cooling gently rather than sharply. Between October 2023 and October 2024, the total unemployment rate rose from approximately 5.15 percent to 5.27 percent. This increase of about 0.12 percentage points is small in absolute terms and consistent with the gradual rebalancing implied by lower vacancy rates and a growing working-age population.
However, the gender composition reveals a more nuanced story. Men’s unemployment rate was effectively flat, declining slightly from about 5.28 percent to 5.26 percent. Women’s unemployment rate, by contrast, rose from roughly 5.02 percent to 5.29 percent, an increase of around 0.27 percentage points. Over the course of the year, women also experienced a sharper spike in unemployment: in August 2024, the female unemployment rate reached about 7.79 percent, compared with 6.14 percent for men and 6.92 percent overall, before receding in subsequent months.
For HR, this pattern has several implications. First, it means that candidate pools for roles traditionally dominated by women – such as many positions in health care, education, retail, and administrative support – may be deeper than they were a year ago. Employers can be more selective, but they should also be sensitive to concerns about job security and progression in these fields. Second, sectors that employ large numbers of men in cyclical industries (such as construction and manufacturing) are not yet seeing a marked deterioration in labour-market conditions, but tightness in certain skilled trades remains likely.
The interplay between unemployment by gender and the gender wage-gap data discussed in Section 2.C is especially important. In sectors where wage gaps have widened at the same time that women’s unemployment has risen – such as parts of retail and other services – there is a risk of heightened dissatisfaction and reputational pressure. HR leaders should be prepared to explain their reward strategies, highlight efforts to improve equity, and ensure that redundancy and restructuring decisions are demonstrably fair and well-documented.
In the short term, modest increases in unemployment provide HR teams with some breathing space on recruitment. In the longer term, however, sustaining engagement and progression for women – particularly in sectors that have seen wage-gap regression – will be critical to maintaining diversity and avoiding future retention problems when the cycle turns.
5. B. Unemployment by age and education
- Among 25- to 59-year-olds, unemployment is highest for younger workers: in October 2024, the rate was about 9.1 percent for 20- to 29-year-olds, compared with 4.9 percent for 30- to 39-year-olds, 4.7 percent for 40- to 49-year-olds, and 4.3 percent for 50- to 59-year-olds.
- Year-on-year, unemployment for 20- to 29-year-olds rose from around 7.4 percent to 9.1 percent, while falling for 30- to 39-year-olds and remaining broadly stable for older groups.
- By education level, unemployment in October 2024 was about 9.3 percent for those without a degree or certificate, 6.9 percent for high-school graduates, 5.2 percent for those with postsecondary certificates or diplomas, 4.6 percent for bachelor’s degree holders, and 4.3 percent for those with education above bachelor’s level.
- HR takeaway: Early-career and less-educated workers face the toughest labour-market conditions, while highly educated workers remain relatively insulated. Employers can tap into this by investing in structured entry-level roles and internal upskilling.
The age-cohort data show that youth unemployment has increased more sharply than unemployment for older workers. In October 2023, the unemployment rate for 20- to 29-year-olds was about 7.4 percent; by October 2024, it had risen to roughly 9.1 percent. Over the same period, unemployment fell from around 5.8 percent to 4.9 percent for 30- to 39-year-olds, and remained broadly stable for 40- to 49-year-olds (around 4.4 percent rising to 4.7 percent) and 50- to 59-year-olds (about 4.2 percent rising slightly to 4.3 percent). In other words, the labour-market adjustment of the past year has been concentrated among younger workers.
From an HR perspective, this means that entry-level and early-career candidate pools are likely to be deeper, while mid-career professionals remain in relatively short supply. Employers who struggled to attract graduates and junior staff during the tightest periods of the pandemic recovery may now find it easier to fill those roles. At the same time, they should expect higher expectations around learning and development: younger workers who have experienced unemployment or underemployment often place greater value on structured training, mentorship, and clear progression paths.
The education breakdown tells a similar story of stratification. In October 2024, unemployment for those without any degree or certificate stood at approximately 9.3 percent, up slightly from 9 percent a year earlier. High-school graduates saw their unemployment rate fall from around 7.2 percent to 6.9 percent. Those with postsecondary certificates or diplomas, however, experienced a notable increase, from approximately 4.2 percent to 5.2 percent, while bachelor’s degree holders saw their unemployment rate fall from about 5.2 percent to 4.6 percent. For those with education above bachelor’s level, unemployment declined from roughly 4.7 percent to 4.3 percent.
This pattern suggests that the current adjustment is biting hardest in the “middle” of the education spectrum: people with some postsecondary education but not a full degree. Many of these workers occupy roles in technical trades, clerical roles, and lower- to mid-level supervisory positions – areas where automation, restructuring, and changing service models are reshaping demand. For HR leaders, this raises two opportunities. First, there is scope to recruit from this pool for roles that offer clear skill development and progression, particularly in sectors with tenure erosion and vacancy challenges. Second, employers can invest in internal upskilling to help postsecondary-qualified staff move into higher-demand roles.
At the same time, the continued low unemployment rates for degree and postgraduate holders mean that competition for highly educated talent remains stiff. Where shortages are most acute, such as in professional, scientific and technical services, or certain health-care occupations, HR teams need to complement pay with flexible work, career development, and meaningful work design.
Aligning all of these trends, the Canadian labour market entering late 2024 is no longer defined by acute scarcity. Instead, it is characterized by selective hiring, firmer wages, shorter tenure in several sectors, and heightened regulatory scrutiny. For senior HR professionals, the task is to use this more balanced environment to professionalize workforce planning, pay governance, and employee relations before the next cycle of disruption arrives
