The year ahead

What's in store for 2015? Publishing group Lancaster House — alongside the University of Toronto’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources — recently took a look at the future of collective bargaining. With a focus on the broader public sector, the December conference examined emerging issues in bargaining and the effect on unions and employers in 2015.

Below, is a summary of the most significant points made by the panel of experts.

Hugh Mackenzie, principal at Hugh Mackenzie & Associates, along with Benjamin Tal, CIBC World Markets’ deputy chief economist, discussed the economic forecast for 2015 and its anticipated effect on collective bargaining.

Tal predicted an upswing in manufacturing will impact the economy as parties enter collective bargaining in the upcoming year.

"We’ve went through hell but we are back," he said. "We will be smaller and leaner but more productive."

In general, however, the labour market is not expected to influence wages as significantly as it used to, said Tal, and this decline is a function of reduced bargaining power.

The influence of the government, however, is reportedly growing. Political process will have a considerable impact on bargaining in the public sector, according to Mackenzie.

"We are on the verge of having an adult conversation about what kind of public services we want and how we’re going to be able to afford them."

The cycle of spending anticipated surpluses and constraining the budget — specifically by cutting public services — to address the deficit is something the Canadian economy can no longer afford, he said.

Michael Kennedy, employer counsel for Hicks Morley, along with Peter Simpson, director of dispute resolution services at the Ontario Ministry of Labour, and Jeffrey Sack, union counsel, examined strategies and tactics they anticipate will influence bargaining in the upcoming year.

Strategies are changing because attitudes are changing, according to the panel. More and more, both unions and employers are strategizing in the long term, said Kennedy, considering multiple rounds of bargaining over years-long periods to achieve the desired outcome. Simpson agreed, calling the new bargaining a "scheduled maintenance" on collective agreements.

This increase in incremental negotiations can be seen as a result of bargaining fatigue. The "community is exhausted," said Simpson. Truncated bargaining cycles have seen parties at the table almost constantly, and that exhaustion will lead to more collaboration in 2015.

Sack agreed, saying he anticipates strike actions will decrease as more parties opt for arbitration. Additionally, bargaining will be further simplified as parties rely more heavily on data to construct strategies, according to Kennedy.

"Everything is driven by data now," he said, predicting negotiations will improve as more parties use data to determine which proposals are viable.

Mackenzie, along with Robin Basu, general counsel for the Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General, Sunil Kapur, employer counsel for McCarthy Tétrault, and Adrienne Telford, union counsel for Cavalluzzo Shilton McIntyre Cornish, and Mackenzie discussed the implications of government involvement in collective bargaining and the effect that issues of essential services and back-to-work legislation will have on future negotiations.

The imbalance of power can be discouraging for employees, said Mackenzie. He argued that if the government "can’t get what they want through bargaining, they can seek it out through another route," such as legislation. If the trend of government intervention continues into 2015, it could have a chilling effect on bargaining, according to conference panellists.

"If you think government is going to intervene," Kapur said, "both sides are much less likely to compromise. And probably less likely to reach a collective agreement."

Robert Bass, founder of Bass Associates, with Richard Blair, union counsel for Ryder Wright Blair & Holmes, Gary Gannage, president and CEO of the Association of Management, Administrative & Professional Crown Employees of Ontario (AMAPCEO), and Elizabeth Keenan, employer counsel for Matthews, Dinsdale & Clark, examined the issues emerging in bargaining in 2015 and predicted the creative solutions employers and unions will likely employ.

Members of the panel agreed pensions, along with sick leave benefits, will continue to dominate the conversation surrounding collective bargaining in the upcoming year. Blair said unions are likely to fight reductions in accrued sick leave days based on the fact that women and older workers would be disproportionately affected, making the issue one of discrimination.

Both employers and unions are expected to continue to shift overall thinking around health and wellness, moving towards a system that promotes a company-wide culture.

Programs and policies such as flextime arrangements, telecommuting and job- and work-sharing will become the new status quo as a "different set of values is brought to the workplace by younger employees," Keenan said.