Vacancies climb in key sectors, while wage trends vary

STRATEGIC HR, JUNE EDITION

Vacancies climb in key sectors, while wage trends vary  

This monthly labour market report gives HR professionals a strategic overview of Canada’s employment trends, based on the most recent data from Statistics Canada’s March Job Vacancies, Payroll Employment and Earnings Report (released May 30), May Labour Force Survey (released June 7), and May Consumer Price Index (released June 18).

Each section compares the most recent month’s data to the same period 12 months earlier, analyzing key trends in job vacancies, wages, employee tenure, unemployment, and demographic shifts. It is designed to help HR leaders adjust talent strategies as workforce mobility, wage inequality, and union activity accelerate in an uneven recovery.

Contents

1. Job Vacancies

Overview: Available jobs continue growth, number of employees filling them drops

• Job vacancies rose to 519,790 in March 2025, a 10.9 percent increase from February, continuing a rebound from the December trough.
• Employment fell by 77,000, indicating job turnover or slower fills rather than true job growth.
• Despite the surge, openings remain below mid-2024 levels when vacancies exceeded 560,000.
• HR takeaway: Demand is reviving across the board, but all things considered, HR should read vacancy data as a proxy for turnover risk and competition, not guaranteed growth.

Industry-specific findings: Unlike last month, several industries see year-over-year vacancy growth 

• Finance and insurance posted a 0.2-point rise in vacancy rate (to 2.4 percent), with vacancies topping 21,000, well above the 12-month average.
• Public administration and information/culture each saw 0.1-point increases in vacancy rates, signaling steady hiring appetite.
• Manufacturing and education posted 0.4-point drops in vacancy rate YOY, despite stable employment levels, showing budget constraints.
• The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector saw the YOY vacancy steepest decline, with a 0.9-point drop and 20 percent fewer available jobs.
• HR insight: Focus hiring efforts on finance, information, and public sectors; in sectors like education or arts, emphasize retention and internal mobility.

2. Wages

Wages vs. inflation: Wages continue stunning gap against inflation

• May 2025 median hourly wages rose 4.43 percent YOY, well ahead of 1.73 percent inflation, maintaining a healthy 2.7-point gap.
• This marks one of the most favourable real wage environments since 2023, supporting employee wage power.
• Men saw higher wage gains (+4.47 percent) than women (+4.00 percent), reversing a year-long trend.
• HR trend: Offers below four percent remain uncompetitive in most sectors; align merit and COLA increases with evolving expectations.

Wage growth by industry: Information, businesses services rank no. 1 and 2 in YOY wage growth for a second month

• Information, culture, and recreation again led all sectors with +9.46 percent YOY wage growth ($31.82 → $34.83).
• Business, building, and support services followed with +8.7 percent, reflecting stabilization efforts in high-turnover roles.
• Public-facing sectors like healthcare (+4.19 percent) and education (+4.00 percent) posted modest, stable wage growth.
• HR implication: Benchmark within sectors, not CPI. Slow-wage sectors must offer remote/hybrid work, internal mobility, or bonus incentives to stay competitive.

Gender wage gaps: Highest wage raising industries again raise gender gaps

• Utilities: Gap tripled YOY from $0.48 → $1.45/hr, a 202 percent increase.
• Information and culture: Gap rose 92 percent to $6.59/hr, with male wages far outpacing female gains.
• Public administration: Gap widened 64 percent, raising concern in historically equitable sectors.
• HR priority: Conduct disaggregated pay audits and align promotions, bonuses, and high-skill hiring pipelines with DEI mandates.

3. Tenure and Litigation

Tenure: Finance leads tenure drop, adding complexity to its vacancy increase 

• Finance, insurance, and real estate had the steepest drop: -3.8 months YOY, now at 102.7 months.
• Construction tenure fell -3.3 months, dropping to 93.8 months, among the lowest across all sectors.
• Other sectors (e.g., transportation, education) saw stability or slight gains, hinting at plateauing mobility.
• HR implication: White-collar retention now requires non-monetary incentives like internal career pathways, project continuity, and mental health support.

Litigation: Huge month for Ontario’s Labour Relations Board and union busting

• Ontario Labour Relations Board saw +105 cases YOY, up to 490. Most cases linked to construction and service sectors, led by LIUNA and Carpenters’ Council.
• BC Employment Standards Tribunal cases more than doubled (from 8 to 17), indicating growing scheduling and leave disputes.
• Alberta saw more psychological injury cases as new clinical assessment criteria took effect.
• HR alert: Proactive communication, union-risk monitoring, and tribunal literacy are now essential compliance tools.

4. Labour Force

Overview: Working population recoups steep growth

• Canada’s core-age (25–64) labour force rose +0.48 percent MOM in May to 18.26 million, rebounding from April’s slight dip.
• The April dip appears to have been a temporary anomaly amid long-term workforce growth.
• HR takeaway: As growth resumes, competition is expected to intensify. HR teams must double down on onboarding and employer branding.

Provinces: Alberta claims May’s greatest YOY provincial increase

• Alberta led with +2.51 percent YOY growth, adding 55,100 workers.
• Last month’s YOY frontrunner Quebec followed at +2.36 percent, expanding by 91,800 workers.
• Manitoba (+2.0 percent) and Nova Scotia (+1.77 percent) also outperformed.
• HR strategy: Focus recruitment in high-growth provinces; use remote options or relocation supports in lower-growth regions.

Cities: Toronto recovers, Moncton continues impressive growth

• Moncton again led urban growth at +5.47 percent, driven by investments in tech, logistics, and advanced manufacturing.
• Toronto recovered from last with +4.98 percent workforce growth, reflecting renewed growth in finance, tech, and professional services.
• Winnipeg (+3.46 percent) continues to outperform its province, although YOY growth was down from last month.
• HR insight: Mid-sized cities are emerging recruitment frontiers. Tailor hiring campaigns and relocation offerings accordingly.

5. Unemployment

General unemployment: Normalizing around 6 percent 

• Men: Unemployment fell to 6.05 percent.
• Women: Held at 5.28 percent, resulting in a 0.77-point gender gap, down from April’s 1.18, but still wide.
• Male-dominated sectors remain sluggish despite vacancy gains.

Age groups: Unemployment of late-careers increasing, that for young talent virtually one-in-10

• Unemployment rose most for ages 50–59, up +1.1 points YOY to 5.37 percent.
• Ages 30–39 and 40–49 also saw significant increases at +0.87 and +0.76 points, respectively.
• Youth (20–29) unemployment remains highest at 9.91 percent, but saw the smallest YOY increase.
• HR focus: Offer phased retirement and mentorship roles to older workers; build mid-career development paths to prevent churn.

Educational attainment: Degree holders face largest spike

• Workers with a university degree saw the largest increase in unemployment: +1.04 percentage points YOY.
• Those with college or trade education saw a smaller rise (+0.6 points), suggesting more stable demand in applied fields.
• Despite the rise, university graduates still had the lowest overall unemployment rate among groups.
• HR recommendation: Partner with universities for co-op and applied learning; target trade-educated candidates for roles with long-term retention potential.

1. Job vacancies

Overview: Available jobs continue growth, employees filling them contract

Canada’s job market showed continued vigour in March 2025. Between February and March 2025, national job vacancies (available jobs) climbed to 519,790, marking a 10.9 percent month-over-month increase from February’s 468,905. This rebound follows a four-month decline in openings that bottomed out in December 2024, suggesting a notable uptick in employers’ hiring appetite. This trend continues from last month’s edition of “Strategic HR,” which saw the highest two-month vacant job increase since April 2024.

The number of payroll employees eased slightly to 17.02 million, down 77,000 from 17.09 million in February. Rising job vacancies, but a marginal drop in the number of employees, suggest labour turnover or delayed hiring cycles, rather than miraculous job expansion.

This latest data suggests HR professionals should be prepared for an upswing in hiring activity. Certainly, as spring usually brings mobility, business activity and graduates, yet also as specific sectors improve as discussed below. Despite the continued hiring uptick, job openings remain well below the mid-2024 levels, when vacancies consistently exceeded 560,000.

For all the uncertainty from the US trade situation, at the national level, “many of the downbeat labour market trends continue to resemble subdued trends that’ve built up in recent years,” said Brendan Bernard, senior economist at Indeed, in a recent post.

“Layoffs remain relatively low, but new hiring is still subdued. Instead, the bite from the trade war has been more apparent in specific regions that are highly integrated with US trade.”

A similar trend is evident in recruiting activity, he said, as Canada-wide job postings on Indeed have held relatively steady since February, but are down more sharply in several regions including Saint John, NB, and Sault Ste. Marie and Windsor, ON.

“These areas will need the trade tensions to ease for a rebound, while the strength of the headline numbers will depend on if this weakness spreads more broadly."

Industry-specific: Unlike last month, several industries see YOY vacancy growth

Changes in industry-specific job vacancy rates – the share of unfilled jobs relative to total employee demand – from March 2024 to 2025 illustrate which sectors are contributing to growth of available jobs. Knowledge-driven sectors like finance, information, and governance lead March’s year-over-year change in vacancy rates.

Finance and insurance led March’s year-over-year gains, with a 0.2-point increase in vacancy rate to 2.4 percent. Over the year, finance employees edged upward to 854,120. Job vacancies, meanwhile, rose to an impressive 21,340, well above the last 12 months’ average of 19,000.

The year-over-year increase in finance vacancies may signal sectoral expansion, after months of recruitment freezes tied to digital disruption. HR professionals should watch for growing activity in AI governance and fraud prevention functions, especially as firms recalibrate for a tech-integrated workforce.

The information and cultural industries, and public administration sectors, each saw 0.1-point increases in March’s year-over-year vacancy rate. Information and cultural industry job vacancies were 7,710 this March, just slightly above 7,625 in March 2024. This spells optimism for hiring in information and cultural roles, also considering its continued remarkable wage growth detailed further on. Here, HR teams may face continued tension between talent demand and wage pressure.

In the public sector, March’s steady year-over-year employee growth (to 568,885) and rising vacancies (to 15,080) may reflect deferred hiring resuming post-election, suggesting persistent demand for policy analysts, regulatory staff, and front-line administrators. According to the previous edition of Strategic HR, a month prior in February, the government was the only sector to see year-over-year job vacancy growth.

From March 2024 to 2025, the remaining industries’ available jobs as a share of all possible jobs have remained stagnant or diminished. Utilities and mining held steady with no change in vacancy rates, despite marginal fluctuations in absolute job counts. The utilities sector, in particular, remained stable and well-staffed in March with 134,555 employees and virtually the same number of vacant jobs as 12 months prior. HR teams should nevertheless stay vigilant to looming retirements that could reopen this gap mid-year.

Among large-employing industries, the continued absence of positive job vacancy momentum is quite telling. Construction, professional services, and manufacturing, each of which experienced vacancy rate declines in recent months, posted zero or negative changes. Manufacturing and educational services each saw a 0.4-point drop in vacancy rate. Manufacturing’s March open positions dipped to 34,230 compared to over 40,000 a year prior, despite employees being stable around 1.52 million. This aligns with a broader global manufacturing slowdown, which Canada’s Prime Minister invested some $2 billion to alleviate last March.

In education, job vacancies dropped from 27,175 in March 2024 to 20,525 in March 2025, even as employees grew from 1.54 million to 1.56 million, highlighting constrained budgets or delayed hiring in provincial school boards.

The very steepest decline for March’s unfilled jobs relative to total employee demand year-over-year came from arts, entertainment, and recreation, across which the vacancy rate fell by 0.9 points. This followed a sharp drop in job postings over the past 12 months, from over 12,965 to just 10,480, and employee gains from 282,905 to 289,380, suggesting a strong hiring year for Canada’s arts sector which has reached the capacity of funding.

Implications for HR

• Prepare for renewed competition in regulated and knowledge-driven sectors (e.g., finance, public administration) where vacancy rates are rising.
• Target recruitment for specialized roles such as compliance, digital transformation, and policy functions, where hiring is rebounding.
• Invest in internal mobility and upskilling, as external hiring slows in sectors like the arts, construction, and manufacturing.
• Anticipate uneven recovery across industries; tailor workforce planning to sector-specific cycles and digital adoption rates.
• Use vacancy rate shifts – not job counts – as leading indicators of real-time talent demand and organizational momentum.

2. Wages  

Wages vs. inflation: Wages continue stunning gap against inflation

In May 2025, Canadian median hourly wages continued to outpace inflation, offering a reprieve for workers navigating ongoing affordability concerns. Across the board, wages rose 4.43 percent year-over-year, extending the trend of real wage gains seen last month and throughout the past year. This surpasses May’s inflation rate of once again 1.73 percent, yielding a healthy 2.7-point margin just slightly narrower than April’s, yet among the most favourable real wage environments since early 2023.

Raises aren’t across the board of Canada’s workforce, however.

“Businesses are under immense pressure to keep costs down, and for many, salary increases just haven’t been feasible this year. In fact, 53 percent of [KA3] [KG4] budget constraints and business performance were the top reasons for delaying or reducing pay rises,” [KA5] [KG6] said Sean Puddle, managing director at Robert Walters North America, which released a survey in June. “These decisions, while understandable, are not without consequence. Whether it’s higher turnover or a gradual drop in motivation, companies are starting to feel the effects.”

October minimum wage increases in Ontario, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia will offer modest boosts to low-income earners but are unlikely to materially shift national wage dynamics. Ontario’s new $17.60 hourly rate remains among the highest in Canada, while Nova Scotia and Manitoba will rise to $16.50 and $16.00, respectively. These changes are inflation-linked but trail the current national median wage growth of over four percent. For HR professionals, this illustrates a growing divergence between statutory wage floors and market-driven pay expectations. While helpful in narrowing the lowest wage gaps, minimum wage hikes alone are insufficient to address broader affordability pressures or wage compression at the lower end of pay scales.

Men saw a 4.47 percent annual increase, slightly outpacing women, whose wages rose four percent. This is a notable shift from earlier months where women’s high growth of wages compared to 12 months prior consistently exceeded that of men. Women’s May wage growth was nevertheless robust at four percent above that of the previous year.

For HR professionals, March’s wage and inflation dynamics underscore several priorities:

• Reset expectations: With inflation subdued but wages still rising ~4 percent annually, employee expectations are shifting. Increases below this threshold may still be perceived as falling short.
• Watch for wage compression: Minimum wage hikes, while modest, can compress pay scales at the lower end. Review salary bands to ensure differentiation reflects experience and role complexity.
• Reassess gender equity: The recent reversal in gendered wage growth trends could indicate structural shifts. Now is the time to revisit internal pay equity audits, and ensure compensation remains fair and evidence based.
• Anticipate retention pressures: Employees may view cost-of-living increases as baseline, not merit. Failure to align wages with clearly evolving norms could quietly erode loyalty and retention.

Wage growth by industry: Information, businesses services rank no. 1 and 2 YOY wage growth for a second month

The top 10 industries for May’s year-over-year median wage growth saw increases between 2.9 percent and 9.5 percent, reflecting sector-specific winners rather than broad economic acceleration contributing to Canadians’ overall wage growth. That top wage growth range was slightly less than last month’s Strategic HR edition, which reported some industry wages as high as 10 percent compared with the April figures.

Information, culture, and recreation once again led the pack, with a 9.46 percent YOY increase in May (the sector also had April’s only 10 percent YOY increase). Wages jumped from $31.82 in May 2024 to $34.83 in May 2025. HR leaders in this continuingly high-performing space may consider offering more than compensation; flexible work arrangements, equity incentives, and accelerated advancement pathways are increasingly table stakes.

Next came business, building and other support services, which saw an 8.7 percent wage increase, climbing from $23 to $25. These roles, often involving cleaning, security, call centre operations, and administrative outsourcing, have long been marked by high turnover. They continued second-place YOY wage growth from the last edition of Strategic HR. For HR professionals here, stability may depend more on structured upskilling and benefits than just headline wages.

Utilities (+5.76 percent) and construction (+5.56 percent) followed for May’s year-over-year wage increase. Both sectors face chronic labour shortages, according to groups such as the Canadian Construction Association and Electricity HR Canada. Wage gains in utilities, where the median hourly wage remains a high $52.88, are indicative of infrastructure demand and a retiring workforce. In construction, the increase from $36 to $38 continues a pattern of upward pressure in skilled trades. Apprenticeship pipelines and retention-focused programs will be key for HR professionals in both sectors.

Other high wage-growth sectors for May included health care and social assistance (+4.19 percent), agriculture (+4.17 percent), education (+4 percent), and public administration (+3.05 percent). While these increases are modest compared to private sector standouts, they reflect continued government investment in stabilizing essential services particularly in response to recent years’ labour disputes and long wait times. HR leaders in public-facing roles should emphasize job security, pension benefits, and mission-driven culture in recruitment messaging.

Interestingly, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing posted only a 2.92 percent increase, well below the national average of 4.43 percent. This suggests that white-collar wage growth is moderating, even as job vacancy rates begin to rise again. In this sector, HR professionals may need to reframe value propositions, offering internal mobility and remote-first policies to offset slower wage movement.

Implications for HR

• Match sector-specific benchmarks, not inflation: Wage expectations in fields like tech, construction, and utilities continue to exceed CPI, and cost-of-living increases alone won’t retain top talent.
• Watch for attrition risk in slower-growth sectors (e.g., finance, warehousing); use non-wage incentives like career mobility, hybrid flexibility, and performance-linked recognition to stay competitive.
• Support-service roles are professionalizing: Continued wage increases in business support and agriculture signal a shift toward formal pipelines and stronger employee value propositions.
• Public sector stability is still a draw: HR in health, education, and administration should emphasize job security, pensions, and purpose-driven messaging to attract candidates amid steady but modest wage growth.

Gender wage gaps: Highest wage raising industries again raise gender gaps

In May 2025, new data confirms a worrying trend that Canada’s most heavily compensated industries are also seeing the steepest expansions in gender pay gaps. Across sectors such as utilities, information and culture, natural resources, and public administration, the wage difference between men and women grew not only in absolute terms, but also in proportion, with double- and even triple-digit percentage increases over the past 12 months.

The most dramatic shift occurred again in utilities, where the gender wage gap tripled. In May 2024, the difference stood at just $0.48 per hour; by May 2025, it had widened to $1.45, a 202 percent increase. Despite the sector’s high overall pay with men earning a median of $52.88/hour, women $51.43, this divergence suggests that recent gains in utility infrastructure, especially high-skilled roles, may be disproportionately accruing to men. This trend is especially troubling given utilities’ public ownership profile and historic commitments to equitable hiring.

In information, culture and recreation, the pay gap grew from $3.43 in May 2024 to $6.59/hour in May 2025, a 92 percent jump once again ranked second for industries year-over-year increases. Men’s median wages reached $38.46, while women’s was just $31.87. Despite both genders seeing gains, men’s earnings outpaced women’s dramatically, consistent with reports of male overrepresentation in higher-paying tech-adjacent roles within this sector, including digital production and AI tooling.

Natural resources industries (forestry, fishing, mining, and oil & gas) saw their gap grow from $4.10 to $7.06, a 72 percent expansion. As of May, men earn $48/hour, women just $40.94. These physically intensive, high-paying roles remain deeply gendered, and the gap may reflect role stratification: men in site-based, overtime-heavy positions versus women in office-based, lower compensated support roles.

Public administration, often heralded for progressive workplace policies, is also slipping. The gender pay gap rose 64 percent, from $3.64 to $5.96/hour, despite parallel gains in overall compensation. Men now earn $48.34, women $42.38. This suggests that recent staffing expansions or leadership promotions may have skewed male.

Likewise, professional, scientific, and technical services, long viewed as bellwethers of knowledge-economy equity, saw the gap widen 35 percent, from $7.12 to $9.62/hour, the highest difference in real terms across industries. In May, this was the fifth highest gap increase, bringing the industry down from April’s third highest relative increase. Here, median pay for men rose to $48.08, while women’s earnings stagnated at $38.46. The disparity hints at gendered glass ceilings within high-growth professional and scientific sectors like engineering, consulting, or legal services.

Other top gap-widening sectors included real estate and leasing, transportation, and warehousing, and business support services, each saw male wages outstrip female wages at increasing rates, even as total industry pay grew modestly.

Implications for HR Professionals

• Equity erosion is structural, not incidental. These widening gaps aren’t driven by declining women’s wages, but by accelerating male wage growth, particularly in top-tier roles or overtime-heavy positions.
• Median data masks role-level disparities. Pay audits should disaggregate by function, seniority, and geographic posting. In utilities and natural resources, for instance, frontline field roles may dominate male wage gains.
• Policy alone won’t fix this. Public-sector employers like those in utilities and administration must pair equity goals with transparent progression frameworks and targeted promotion pathways.
• Intersectional analysis is essential. Sectors like professional services and real estate, where hiring is increasingly digital, should scrutinize promotion, retention, and bonus access by gender and race.

3. Tenure and litigation

Tenure: Finance leads tenure drop, adding complexity to its vacancy increase

Leading May’s year-over-year tenure decline was finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing, where average tenure dropped by 3.8 months, from 106.5 to 102.7 months. In April, finance’s average tenure declined only two months YOY, making this month’s drop one to watch closely along with the sector’s raising vacancies. For finance HR, this signals an urgent need to strengthen talent pathways, particularly for early- and mid-career professionals seeking progression.

Construction followed closely, once again ranking second for reduced tenure, with a 3.3-month drop, landing at just 93.8 months with among the lowest tenure averages across all sectors. While seasonal volatility plays a role, this decline is concerning in a sector already strained by a skilled labour shortage. Workers may be chasing higher pay elsewhere or dropping out entirely due to burnout. HR leaders here must look beyond wages, emphasizing job security, reskilling, and safety programs that create longer-term engagement.

Wholesale and retail trade saw a more modest 0.6-month drop. However, the sector already has one of the shortest tenures on record, down to 87 months. Persistent churn continues to undermine retention investments, suggesting that improvements in scheduling flexibility and internal advancement are not yet enough to anchor talent in this competitive sector.

Remaining industries saw stagnant or improved average tenure in May 2025 compared to May 2024. The transportation and warehousing sector posted no net change, stabilizing at 101 months. While this flatline appears benign, it masks volatility across the year. After an initial dip, tenure rebounded in early 2025, potentially due to high wage growth in logistics and slower hiring that forces employers to rely more on experienced staff.

Surprisingly, even educational services, typically a high-tenure field, saw minimal improvement, gaining just 0.6 months and now standing at 124.6 months, up slightly from 124 last May. This may suggest stabilization following budget turbulence and labour actions in prior years, but the absence of real gains should concern public education HR professionals striving for longer-term retention.

Implications for HR Professionals

• Tenure is shortening even in stable sectors. Financial services and education are no longer immune to the mobile mindset reshaping the workforce.
• Retention now requires deeper engagement strategies. Compensation matters, but so do career architecture, remote flexibility, and leadership transparency.
• Industry-specific responses are essential. For construction, that means targeting burnout; for finance, focusing on mid-career churn; for wholesale, rethinking frontline career mobility.

Litigation: Huge month for Ontario’s Labour Relations Board and union busting

Tribunal case data from May 2025 shows a clear rise in employment-related legal disputes across Canada, particularly in workers’ compensation, labour relations, and employment standards. While some of these increases reflect backlog clearance, others suggest new regulatory pressures and shifting worker-employer dynamics – factors that HR professionals cannot afford to ignore.

The Ontario Labour Relations Board (OLRB) saw the largest increase, with case decisions climbing from 385 in May 2024 to 490 in May 2025, a remarkable net gain of 105 cases.

The majority of these 490 cases centered around union certification disputes, jurisdictional challenges, and employer resistance to unionization in the construction and service sectors. Notably, a significant volume of applications came from the Labourers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) and the Carpenters’ Regional Council, targeting small to mid-sized contractors across Ontario. Additionally, there was a steady stream of duty of fair representation complaints filed by individual workers against their unions. For Ontario HR professionals, the volume of union activity and representation complaints signals a need to strengthen workplace communication, ensure procedural fairness, and proactively address organizing risks especially in construction, healthcare, and retail settings.

In Saskatchewan, the Workers’ Compensation Board Appeal Tribunal posted the most dramatic relative increase, from 0 to 19 cases. While numerically modest, this sharp rise likely reflects a clearing of long-dormant appeals and renewed focus on injury-related adjudications. Saskatchewan employers should continue to brace for potential ripple effects, particularly around legacy claims; in April, the provinces’ Workers’ Compensation Board recorded an identical YOY increase. Robust return-to-work documentation and proactive ergonomic and mental health supports are key to managing future claims exposure.

British Columbia registered two separate YOY decision increases this May:

• The Workers’ Compensation Appeal Tribunal rose from 146 to 156 cases, an uptick linked to expanded policy adjudication on limb-related soft tissue disorders (ASTDs).
• The Employment Standards Tribunal more than doubled its May volume, from 8 to 17 cases. This rise signals growing friction in wage, hour, and leave-related disputes, particularly in sectors like hospitality, retail, and gig work. HR professionals should ensure compliance with BC’s complex statutory leave and scheduling provisions, especially where hybrid or seasonal employment complicates standard practices.

Alberta’s Appeals Commission for Workers’ Compensation rose modestly, from 47 to 54 decisions. In 2025, the province adopted new clinical criteria (DSM-5-TR and AMA Guides, 6th ed.) for adjudicating psychological and physical impairments. Alberta employers would be wise to update claims management protocols, especially around workplace mental health accommodations. Expect more rigorous scrutiny of how psychological injuries are documented and addressed internally.

Other notable activities include small but meaningful increases in tribunals across Nova Scotia, Quebec, and the federal sector, particularly in regulated professions. These include licensing, conduct, and employment matters tied to teachers, healthcare workers, and financial professionals.

Implications for HR Professionals

• Union activity is intensifying, particularly in Ontario’s construction, healthcare, and retail sectors. HR teams must strengthen communication channels, ensure procedural fairness, and monitor for early signs of organizing activity.
• Tribunal trends signal evolving standards, not just disputes. Ontario and BC are key jurisdictions where procedural expectations around union certification, scheduling, and worker classification are shifting.
• Regulated employers face dual exposure, with increasing scrutiny on both employment practices and sector-specific professional conduct, especially in healthcare, finance, and education.
• Backlog clearance is driving case surges, but even old cases carry fresh risk. Historical disputes, once resolved, can trigger reputational, financial, and compliance ripple effects.

4. Labour force

Overview: Working population recoups steep growth

In May 2025, Canada’s core working-age labour force (ages 25 to 64) rebounded, expanding by 0.48 percent month-over-month to reach 18.26 million. This gain follows a modest dip in April and represents the strongest single-month increase since December 2024, when seasonal hiring typically boosts participation.

The nearly 88,000-person increase from April’s 18.18 million reverses what initially appeared to be a turning point in labour force expansion. The April decline, though slight at 0.08 percent, had marked only the second contraction in a year marked by steady growth. May’s data suggests that dip was indeed an anomaly, possibly tied to late tax season transitions, caregiver absences, or spring holiday impacts, rather than the beginning of a longer retreat from the workforce.

Employment typically adjusts slowly to changes in economic activity, said Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, in a speech this month in St. John’s.

“It’s easy to understand why. Hiring workers – finding the right match – is time-consuming and expensive. So is training new workers. That’s why, when demand picks up, employers typically begin by asking people to work longer hours,” he said. “That’s fine for a while, but if the strong demand persists, businesses start to increase hiring, so employment tends to pick up with a lag when the economy is strengthening.”

With the US tariffs, there have been layoffs in certain industries, and employment has fallen in trade-sensitive sectors, he said.

“What happens to the labour market next will depend critically on what happens with the Canada-US trade relationship. It will also depend on how much we can expand trade within our country and overseas.”

Zooming out, labour force growth has shown remarkable persistence over the past 12 months. Despite turbulence in hiring and vacancy trends, total workforce participation grew by nearly 1.7 percent from May 2024 to May 2025. However, this trend has not been uniform: July 2024 saw a noticeable dip, while recovery remained uneven through the fall. Only in recent months has growth stabilized in a steady upward pattern.

Implications for HR Professionals

• May’s rebound reinforces a competitive labour environment. Employers cannot count on slack in the talent pool to ease recruitment. Instead, investment in candidate experience and onboarding will be essential.
• Labour force growth isn’t unlimited. As older workers retire and younger cohorts delay full-time participation, fluctuations like April’s may become more common. Employers should view even small contractions as strategic signals to improve engagement and retention.
• Growth in supply doesn’t guarantee skill alignment. HR must continue to focus on upskilling, internal mobility, and inclusive hiring practices to bridge mismatches in experience and sectoral need.

Provinces: Alberta claims May’s greatest YOY provincial increase

In the 12 months to May 2025, Canada’s workforce grew unevenly across provinces, with Alberta and Quebec leading the national expansion. Alberta posted the fastest growth, with its core labour force rising 2.51 percent, adding 55,100 workers to reach 2.25 million. Alberta’s YOY growth in May stands in contrast to that of April, when its workforce grew only 1.9 percent. For HR leaders operating in Alberta, wage pressure may rise quickly in skilled trades, healthcare, and digital services.

Quebec followed with 2.36 percent YOY growth (down from April’s leading 2.79 percent), expanding its workforce by 91,800 to nearly four million. Employers here must stay attuned to francophone and newcomer integration, as well as evolving expectations in public administration and healthcare.

Manitoba (+2.0 percent) and Nova Scotia (+1.77 percent) also outperformed. Ontario, Canada’s largest labour market, posted modest growth of 1.21 percent (well above April’s 0.88 percent growth), adding 86,300 workers.

Notably, in May Prince Edward Island recorded a 0.13 percent contraction, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw minimal growth (+0.31 percent). These trends suggest that Atlantic Canada’s labour retention remains a challenge, with outmigration and aging demographics affecting long-term stability.

For HR professionals, these regional shifts underscore the need for localized workforce planning. In high-growth provinces, competition for talent will intensify, requiring proactive recruitment and retention strategies. In slower-growth regions, employers may find deeper pools of available workers, but must also address barriers to relocation, remote engagement, and career development.

Cities: Toronto recovers, Moncton continues impressive growth

Across Canada, urban labour markets continued to accelerate in May 2025, often outpacing their respective provincial averages. The data underscores a central theme for HR professionals: Canada’s workforce growth is increasingly concentrated in its major cities.

Leading the charge is Moncton, NB, which saw its labour force grow by 5.47 percent, adding 5,500 workers to reach 106,100. This is more than quadruple the provincial growth rate of 1.25 percent. Investments in logistics, manufacturing, and tech, including support from Opportunities NB, are paying dividends, helping transform Moncton into a regional talent hub.

In May, Toronto posted a robust 4.98 percent year-over-year gain, adding 25,800 workers. That was a notable improvement from April’s gain of 3.85 percent. Despite Ontario’s relatively modest 1.2 percent provincial growth, the Greater Toronto Area remains Canada’s dominant magnet for interprovincial and international migration. The city’s gains suggest recovery in high-skill sectors such as finance, professional services, and tech.

Similarly, Montréal and Calgary grew by 4.13 percent and 3.56 percent, respectively, both slightly down from April’s relative gains. Montréal alone added over 100,000 workers, accounting for the vast majority of Quebec’s total gain. Calgary’s growth reflects resurgent confidence in Alberta’s diversified economy, from energy to clean tech and health sciences.

Winnipeg added 7,100 workers, a 3.46 percent increase that significantly outpaces Manitoba’s 2 percent provincial growth. With affordable costs of living and increased urban infrastructure investment, Winnipeg continues to attract regional migration and has become a surprising standout on the national stage.

Even in slower-growing provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador, urban centres showed stronger momentum. St. John’s grew 3.13 percent – 10 times the pace of the province overall – signalling that young workers and returnees may be concentrating in economic cores, even as rural participation plateaus.

Implications for HR Professionals

• National workforce strategies must now prioritize city-centric realities. Talent pipelines, outreach campaigns, and compensation structures should reflect the concentration of talent in urban markets, even if headquartered provincially.
• Mid-sized cities like Moncton and Winnipeg offer new recruitment frontiers. Their continuous fast growth suggests rising education and infrastructure capacity, presenting alternatives to high-cost markets like Toronto and Vancouver.
• City-focused growth presents a retention risk for smaller towns. Employers operating outside major urban centres must enhance local engagement, remote work access, and relocation supports.

5. Unemployment

General unemployment: Normalizing around six percent

In May 2025, Canada’s unemployment rate among core working-age adults (25–64) continued to reflect diverging experiences by gender. Unemployment for men declined marginally to 6.05 percent, while the rate for women held nearly flat at 5.28 percent. This 0.77 percentage point gap, while narrower than April’s 1.18 points, remains historically wide and warrants scrutiny from employers.

Despite a broad rebound in job vacancies nationally, typically male-dominated industries continue to experience hiring friction, project delays, and regional volatility. For HR professionals in these sectors, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity: untapped male labour is available, but successful reintegration may require targeted outreach, reskilling programs, and more stable contract offerings.

Conversely, the relatively lower and steady unemployment rate among women suggests ongoing demand sectors that typically employ more women and have seen wage and workforce growth in recent months, including in healthcare, education, and public administration. However, as these sectors absorb more talent, retention pressure may intensify, and employers should prepare for rising competition over skilled female workers.

Implications for HR

• Tailor re-entry pathways for men in stagnating sectors through transitional roles, certifications, or subsidized apprenticeships.
• Proactively invest in retention for women in care and administrative roles, where demand is surging and turnover could rise.
• View unemployment trends as a signal of where labour mismatches persist, and where targeted investment can unlock underused talent pools.

Age groups: Unemployment of late careers increasing, that for young talent virtually one in 10
 

In May 2025, unemployment increased YOY across all major working-age groups in Canada, this month with the sharpest rise not among youth, but among older and mid-career professionals. The 50–59 age group posted the largest year-over-year percentage point increase, with unemployment rising from 4.26 percent to 5.37 percent, an 1.1 percentage point jump. This marks the second consecutive month where older workers led all age brackets in joblessness increase, a trend that suggests shifting employer preferences, digital displacement, or structural bias in hiring and layoffs.

The 30–39 and 40–49 cohorts also saw notable increases of 0.87 and 0.76 percentage points, respectively. These age groups typically represent the core of management, specialist, and supervisory talent. Their rising unemployment could indicate organizational flattening, budget-driven middle-management cuts, or skills mismatches amid fast-evolving digital demands.

Surprisingly, the 20–29 group, while still facing the highest unemployment overall at nearly one in 10 or 9.91 percent, saw the smallest annual increase (+0.59 pp). This may signal a slow recovery in entry-level roles, with some stabilization following sharp volatility over the past two years.

For Erika Brooks, head of people, Canada and customer unit at Ericsson, attracting early-career employees is a strategic imperative.

"That’s a key part of our talent pipeline approach. We really want to remain a competitive player in attracting top technology talent," she told Canadian HR Reporter in June.

The company’s deep ties with educational institutions help keep it connected to top young minds across Canada, said Brooks.

“We engage with top talent through things like tech conferences, career fairs, university outreach programs, just to have that connection… so people know us and know what we’re doing.”Many young Canadian workers aged 18 to 29 prioritize workplace benefits and policies over higher wages when choosing employment, according to a new study published in the BMC Public Health journal. These young workers (YW) value attributes such as extended health insurance, paid vacation and workplace respect policies more highly than salary increases.

“The findings suggest that health and wellbeing are highly valued by young workers and are among key drivers of employment preferences for Canadian young workers during and after the pandemic, and therefore call for policies in the workplace that support their health and well-being.”

Implications for HR Professionals

• Older workers are at increasing risk of exclusion. Upskilling programs, mentorship roles, and phased retirement pathways can tap their value while reducing attrition and legal risk.
• Middle-career displacement is rising. HR must reassess internal mobility and development plans to prevent the loss of institutional knowledge and future leadership.
• Youth unemployment remains high, but more stable. Structured onboarding, role clarity, and growth opportunities will be crucial to converting early-career hires into long-term contributors.

Education attainment: Degree holders face rising joblessness

In May 2025, the sharpest YOY increase in unemployment by age group was seen among high school graduates, whose unemployment rose 1.2 percentage points, from 6.4 percent to 7.6 percent.

Meanwhile, workers with a bachelor’s degree saw unemployment rise from 4.5 percent to 5.2 percent, and those above the bachelor’s level (e.g., master’s or professional degrees) also climbed to 5.2 percent. These gains suggest a cooling in white-collar hiring, particularly in public sector, administrative, and tech-adjacent roles.

Are MBAs still worthwhile? There’s no final answer, Yannick Fouagou, director of people operations and solutions at GreenShield, told Canadian HR Reporter earlier this year.“I think [MBAs] are super valuable to get in the door… But it’s not the predictor of success, basically. So, having somebody with that degree will not predict their success or their growth in companies.”

A university degree or an MBA often matters earlier in the candidate’s career because an employer can evaluate them based on their ability to learn at a certain level and under time pressure, said Mark Rouse, partner at IQ Partners in Toronto, “whereas you can’t judge them on their work experience because they don’t have any yet, earlier on in their career.”

Even holders of postsecondary certificates or diplomas saw jobless rates inch up, rising from 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent. The broad upward pressure across educational groups points to delayed hiring, reduced mobility, and possibly increased competition in mid-tier professional markets.

In contrast, the unemployment rate for those without a diploma rose only 0.2 points, from 10.5 percent to 10.7 percent. While still the highest overall, this group experienced the smallest YOY increase, suggesting continued hiring in low-barrier sectors like construction, warehousing, and hospitality.

Implications for HR Professionals

• Educational credentials no longer insulate against unemployment. Employers should review hiring filters that prioritize degrees over direct experience and applied skills.
• Overqualification friction may rise, especially among college and university grads competing for mid-skill roles. Clear role progression, meaningful onboarding, and job design will be critical.
• Entry-level hiring conditions are stabilizing, but wage growth and working conditions remain essential for attracting and retaining workers without formal education.