Wage growth cools, inflation climbs, finds report
Canadian employment rose in Q2 2026 after a weak start to the year, according to a recent report from Indeed.
The unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent recorded in June matched its lowest monthly level since the third quarter of 2024, according to the report.
Indeed Hiring Lab senior economist Bernard noted that monthly job growth in the Labour Force Survey has been more volatile over the past year than at any point since the pandemic, though year-over-year figures have shown a more consistent signal.
Employment has been roughly flat since mid-2025 in both the Labour Force Survey and the Survey of Employment, Payrolls, and Hours.
Bernard added that both the unemployment rate and the working-age employment rate remain weaker than during the post-pandemic rebound, meaning challenges such as prolonged unemployment spells for job seekers persist.
Canada's labour market held its ground in June as hiring remained modest, according to a previous report.
Job postings flat, with declines in health care and education
Job postings on Indeed had slipped 4.6 per cent since the start of 2026 as of early July but remained close to flat compared with a year earlier, down 2.8 per cent. Sales and customer service remained the largest category of job postings and one of the more stable sectors.
Bernard said postings in health care, education, and business and finance had "previously been quite elevated," and their recent pullback could signal slower job growth ahead in those fields.
Statistics Canada's Job Vacancy and Wage Survey showed a similar pattern, with vacancies down 3.4 per cent year-over-year through April. The report said the two data sources are "sending a consistent signal that demand has plateaued following its post-pandemic swoon."
Wage growth slows as inflation rebounds
Wage growth has diverged from broader labour trends in recent years, holding at a robust pace even as unemployment rose. Composition-adjusted hourly earnings growth averaged about 4 per cent annually between 2023 and 2025 in official data, according to the report.
That pace has since cooled. Year-over-year hourly wage growth recently slipped to 2.3 per cent in the payrolls survey and 2.9 per cent in the Labour Force Survey, both nearing the 2.4 per cent pace shown in the Indeed wage tracker, which had signalled the slowdown since 2022.
Bernard said that with inflation rising above 3 per cent in May amid spiking energy prices, "the purchasing power of many Canadians could take a hit in the coming months."
This comes as Canadian job seekers are increasingly driven by economic anxiety rather than career ambition, which may signal rising turnover risk and shifting salary expectations among current employees, according to a previous survey.
