Returning vacancy trends and wage signals HR can’t ignore
Canada’s labour market continues to cool, with job vacancies falling decisively year on year and confirming the shift away from broad-based hiring pressure. Some industries remain rare pockets of job growth month on month, while information and technology-related sectors (previously among the most resilient) now post some of the most alarming vacancy declines.
Wages tell a similarly nuanced story. Median pay has been effectively stagnant for months, but easing inflation has quietly improved real purchasing power. Once again, utilities, finance, and education stand out for exceptional wage gains, reinforcing pressure in credential-heavy and public-adjacent roles.
Meanwhile, unemployment continues to fall overall but with striking exceptions: it has risen among 30- to 39-year-olds and workers holding only a bachelor’s degree. For HR leaders, January’s latest data point to a market where risk lies less in hiring volume than in pay alignment, progression, and which workers feel exposed.
What’s inside the January edition of Strategic HR
1. Job vacancies: fewer openings, but not a uniform slowdown
- National job vacancies fell 13.1% year-on-year (YoY), reaching their lowest level since early 2024.
- Only two industries posted annual vacancy growth: other services and manufacturing, signalling surprising resilience. Information and cultural industries reversed sharply, recording a YoY decline after months of relative strength.
2. Wages: inflation cools, real pay matters more
- Median hourly wages remain flat, but slower inflation lifted real purchasing power roughly YoY. When it comes to wage competition, this is where HR pros must place their attention.
- Utilities, finance, and education led with outstanding wage growth, concentrating pay pressure in regulated and capital-adjacent roles.
3. Unemployment: falling overall, rising where it matters
- Prime-age unemployment declined YoY, reinforcing the absence of broad labour-market deterioration.
- Only 30- to 39-year-olds saw unemployment rise, breaking from the broader downward trend.
- By education, bachelor’s degree holders were the sole credential group to record a YoY increase, highlighting new vulnerability in the mid-career, mid-credential workforce.
Other sections provide insights on:
- Tenure: Remarkable drops in information, culture, and recreation industries coincide with the decline in job vacancies.
- Workforce: Month on month, the number of workers has fallen by 64,100. Western Canadian cities are leading worker growth.
Read the full January edition of Strategic HR to understand where hiring resilience remains, why real wages now matter more than nominal increases, and how emerging pressure points among mid-career professionals could shape retention, equity, and employee-relations risk in 2026.
