The largest share of organizations – 46.7% – expect business conditions to remain unchanged in 2026 compared to 2025
Despite mounting uncertainty in Canada’s economic outlook, organizations are signaling stability in their compensation plans, according to two new surveys released this week.
The Conference Board of Canada’s Compensation Planning Outlook shows that while confidence remains fragile, organizations are still preparing for modest salary increases.
The average salary band rose 2.8% this year, and employers expect a similar 2.7% increase in 2026.
However, the report underscores how economic headwinds are weighing on workforce expansion: employment growth is projected at just 0.2% for the second half of 2025 and 0.3% in 2026.
“The largest share of organizations – 46.7% – expect business conditions to remain unchanged in 2026 compared to 2025, while only 5.6% foresee deterioration,” the Conference Board stated.
Yet, more than 60% of employers anticipate facing either an economic downturn or fallout from Canada–U.S. tensions.
Regional, sectoral differences
Meanwhile, TELUS Health’s 43rd annual Salary Projection Survey projects a slightly more optimistic outlook for non-unionized Canadian workers, with average base-salary growth expected at 3.11% in 2026.
Though this marks the third straight year of easing projections, it represents real wage growth when measured against the 1.9% inflation rate announced earlier this week.
“This still translates to continued purchasing-power recovery for Canadian employees,” TELUS Health noted in its media release.
Regional and sectoral differences also stand out in the projections. Manitoba leads provinces with a 3.43% increase in average base salaries for 2026, followed by New Brunswick at 3.25% — the only province to record growth in its salary increase rate over 2025 — and Quebec at 3.21%.
By contrast, Saskatchewan lags at 2.95%, not only the lowest among provinces with statistically significant results but also registering the steepest decline from 2025.
Sector-specific forecasts reflect similar divergences:
- High Technology (3.64%)
- Oil & Gas (3.58%)
- Life Sciences (3.39%)
- Information Technology (3.25%)
- Real Estate (3.25%)
- Business Services trails at just 2.60%
The latest annual Salary Increase Survey from Normandin Beaudry is projecting an average salary increase of 3.1% for 2026 (excluding salary freezes) — a slight decline from the 3.2% actual average in 2025.
That compares with predictions from Gallagher that the average salary bump for non-unionized employees is expected to drop to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% this year and 3.8% in 2024—a return to pre-pandemic norms.
