Over 1 million workers in Ontario alone will see collective bargaining agreements expire, says Scotiabank
Worker strikes once again impacted many Canadian employers in the past year, with workers holding picket lines. But more strikes may be coming in the next two years, according to a Scotiabank report.
“Those strikes and aggressive wage settlements will persist,” says Derek Holt, vice president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.
Just this year, a number of workers have already taken to the streets to hold walkouts.
There was a major transit strike in British Columbia in January, for example. Also, nearly 500 workers at military bases in Ontario and Quebec were on the picket line as negotiations between the union and the government broke off.
And Ontario's French-language elementary and secondary school teachers and occasional teachers have voted in favour of strike.
Expiring collective bargaining agreements
Expiring contract agreements are one of the factors that will contribute to more strikes, says Holt.
“In Ontario alone, about one million workers (almost 15% of all workers) will see their collective bargaining agreements expire over 2024–26. It’s a similar share in Alberta that also provides detailed data.”
And these strikes have been hurting the economy, according to the report. In 2023 alone, around 1.5 million total hours were lost due to strikes or lockouts, according to Scotiabank.
“Canada is losing more hours worked to striking workers than it lost at any point during pandemic restrictions,” says Holt. “That’s just stunning in my view.”
“Add in wildfires, heavy oil upgraders undergoing unplanned maintenance, retooling at a large auto assembly plant, and strikes aplenty from April through now and you have a picture of serial growth distortions.”
Meanwhile, QP Briefing reports that there were 1,183,000 hours of work lost due to labour disputes among those gone for an entire work in December 2023 alone, citing Statistics Canada (StatCan) data. For those absent for part of a week, that number came out to 933,100.
Those numbers were up from only 2,000 hours lost due to a strike or lockout, all among those gone for a full week, in Dec. 2020, according to the report. In December 2022, those numbers are 53,900 hours for those gone for a full week and 7,100 for those absent for part of a week.
In a significant development for labour rights in Canada, the City of Ottawa recently banned the use of replacement workers during strikes.
Strikes and 'tumbling labour productivity'
While these strikes have been pushing wages up however, productivity has not improved, says Holt.
“Fewer and fewer folks want to work as they seek wage gains that are massively above what is justified by tumbling labour productivity through the collective bargaining process that governs about one-third of Canada’s workforce.”
In November 2023, about 570,000 workers went on strike at the same time in Quebec, the largest strike in Canada’s history.
In August that year, two experts warned that more strike actions may be on the way.
