HR planning in a crisis

With the pandemic subsiding in Canada, and lockdowns ending, there are warnings of a turnover tsunami, reflecting an unprecedented level of churn of employees.

Research in June 2021 by Robert Half suggested that 21 per cent of Canadian employees planned to look for a new job in the next few months.

Moreover, indicators of high turnover are evident in Canada today, including high levels of employee burnout, increased feelings of isolation at work, limited personal development opportunities or investments, and stagnant wages.

With the economy re-opening post COVID-19, having the right quantity of workers with the right skills in the right jobs is important to firm success for both the short and long term. Essentially, human resources professionals must find an equilibrium point where the right number and the right mix of employees are working to meet business demands.

To engage in effective HR planning, we need to move from traditional models to expert analysis-based scenario planning.

Traditional models don’t work

One the biggest challenges with HR planning today is that the trends and assumptions that were used in the past might not be valid or transferrable in the future. Traditional HR planning techniques were based on using the past to predict the future (such as trend analysis, regression analysis or Markov Analysis).

However, given the wave of disruptions, the changes to business models, and the uncertainty of business demands, it is harder to engage in effective HR planning using these models.

For example, a hotel cleaner who cleaned three rooms per hour pre-COVID-19 might only clean two rooms now due to enhanced cleaning protocols. Additionally, demand is in flux, as more guests opt to not have rooms cleaned during their stay.

As another example, a university professor teaching a face-to-face course might have a course capacity based on lecture room seating limitations. This might result in two teaching assignments of 150 students in each class. The same capacity limitations do not apply for a professor pivoting to an online or hybrid (part online and part in-person) course. This can result in one teaching assignment for 200 students.

So, how can HR experts help companies move forward? It’s time to think more broadly about HR planning.

HR needs to prepare multiple possible scenarios to be able to adjust estimates quickly. Often, these include best-case, likely case and worst-case scenarios. 

Get information from the source

Two commonly discussed HR planning techniques are the Delphi technique or Delphi method and the Nominal Group Technique. Both methods require expert analysis, such as front-line supervisors and managers. These experts individually make estimates about human resource supply and demand, working until a consensus is reached.

The Delphi technique is more private, with recorded individual estimates and information collected by a neutral party (usually a human resources expert). The neutral party then amalgamates estimates and rationales, providing ranges and explanations as feedback.

Each individual is then allowed to alter their estimate based on this collective positioning. The process is continued until a consensus is reached. This process is generally free from group think and subjectivity.

In contrast, the Nominal Group Technique allows members to make independent estimates, but then offers opportunities to discuss the assumptions or basis for estimates. This process allows for a greater exchange of ideas and can be quicker than the Delphi technique.

Ask the right questions

Regardless of which expert analysis method is used, it is critical to ask the following questions when engaging in expert analysis HR planning:

• What assumptions did you make and why?
• How is this different from what we had pre-COVID-19?
• Is this based on the existing COVID-19 restrictions? If so, how might the future be different when these restrictions change?
• What are the challenges that employees are facing today and how do those impact your estimates?
• What changes have you experienced with productivity?
• What training and development opportunities do employees need?

Prepare for multiple scenarios

HR professionals also need to prepare multiple possible scenarios to be able to adjust estimates quickly or when needed. Often, these include best-case, likely case, and worst-case scenarios, based on a variety of factors and considerations:

• How available is the required talent in the local, regional, national or international market?
• How willing are employees to return to work?
• Is the company recognized as an employer of choice?
• Do the compensation policies lag, match or exceed competitors?
• What level of skill and training is required for the positions in the company?
• What are the customer limitations that impact demand?

HR’s strategic roles can be magnified during complex times. Complexity requires forecasting changes and recognizing what’s needed for future growth, while delivering simple solutions.

HR can continue to contribute to organizational success by asking the right questions and engaging the right contributors in HR planning.

Nita Chhinzer is a member of the Canadian HR Reporter advisory board and an associate professor in HR management and business consulting in the Department of Management at the University of Guelph in Ontario. She can be reached at [email protected].