'Working Albertans are being asked to carry the risk,' says economist
A new report is warning that Alberta separation would cost workers jobs, higher taxes and the loss of federal labour protections.
The report by economist Jim Stanford of the Centre for Future Work in Vancouver was written in partnership with the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL).
Stanford estimates workers make up around 85 percent of the province's adult population. They would bear the greatest burden of any transition. Federal supports at risk include Employment Insurance, the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Canada-Alberta Labour Market Development Agreement.
He noted that close to 80 per cent of Albertans receive more from federal programs than they pay in income tax and GST, based on the report's research. He called the idea that Albertans lose under federalism a myth.
"Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party (UCP) let the fires of separation burn for political reasons, and now working Albertans are being asked to carry the risk," Stanford said.
Separation rooted in provincial policy, not federalism
The AFL argues that worker frustration driving separatist sentiment stems from provincial policy, not federal governance. The report points to an eight-year minimum wage freeze and declining real wages since 2019 as key evidence. This occurred even as productivity, exports and corporate profits grew.
"Alberta workers are understandably frustrated with rising costs, falling wages, deteriorating public services, and increasing insecurity about the future," said Cori Longo, secretary treasurer of the AFL in Calgary.
"Most of those concerns are rooted in decisions made by our provincial government, not Ottawa. Separation would not improve things — it would make a bad situation worse."
The report outlines 10 specific ways separation would harm Alberta workers, such as:
- severe job losses driven by capital flight and falling investment confidence
- higher taxes and weakened public services
- trade disruption affecting industries and workers dependent on interprovincial and international markets
- mass outmigration of skilled workers ahead of formal independence
The AFL issued a similar warning in February 2026 at the start of its signature campaign pushing for a referendum on the Alberta separation.
Workers at centre of separation debate
In 2025–26, Alberta received a $6.6-billion Canada Health Transfer and a $2.1-billion Canada Social Transfer from Ottawa, according to the AFL. It also warns that outmigration of physicians, nurses, teachers and skilled tradespeople could shrink employer talent pools ahead of formal independence.
Transition costs for establishing new national structures could reach $400 billion according to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, cited by CBC. Alberta would also absorb around $170 billion in federal debt obligations.
A referendum on separation could happen between fall 2026 and May 2027, according to an earlier AFL analysis. HR professionals may need to review collective bargaining timelines, benefits continuity and retention strategies in response. The provincial government's WorkFirst Alberta employment services program and its role in workforce planning may also be affected by prolonged uncertainty.
The AFL is calling on Albertans to reject Alberta separation and focus instead on higher wages, stronger collective bargaining rights and better public services within Canada.
